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Credit Suisse - China Oil and Gas Sector.pdf
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Table of contents“Surplus” ahead; who’s the marginal buyer? ....................................................................... 6
Supply sources becoming diversified.............................................................................. 6
Demand is set to follow at first ........................................................................................ 7
“Surplus” ahead – what does it mean? ........................................................................... 8
Is there upside on our city gas forecasts?....................................................................... 9
China – two gas markets ................................................................................................... 10
Residential customer – total outlay matters .................................................................. 11
The good news – HV markets are also underpenetrated.............................................. 12
Commercial customers – largely linked to residential ................................................... 12
Industrial customers – driven by alternatives................................................................ 13
Power – cannot afford to pay for gas ............................................................................ 14
Prices are well supported now, but could fall later............................................................. 16
Long-term pricing framework – affordability is key........................................................ 16
Prices could surprise on the upside first …................................................................... 18
… but pricing risk is in the back end ............................................................................. 20
What will happen if the RMB appreciates? ................................................................... 20
The wider implications ....................................................................................................... 22
New gas pricing policy: what to expect? ....................................................................... 22
Implications for PetroChina/CNOOC/Sinopec............................................................... 23
Beneficiaries of the gas theme in China........................................................................ 25
Oil demand: substitution................................................................................................ 26
LNG imports .................................................................................................................. 27
Appendix I: Sector valuation.............................................................................................. 28
Appendix II: China gas demand model.............................................................................. 31
Appendix III: China gas supply model ............................................................................... 32
Domestic gas: from reserves to market ........................................................................ 33
Transnational pipelines ................................................................................................. 34
LNG.............................................................................................................................. 36
Other sources................................................................................................................ 37
Appendix IV: Forecasting demand – methodology............................................................ 38
Residential and commercial: down to penetration and affordability .............................. 38
Other demand ............................................................................................................... 40
Power is the swing user ................................................................................................ 40
Gas in transportation – the big potential? ..................................................................... 41
Sensitivities to our demand numbers – is there upside?............................................... 41
Appendix V: Cost push ...................................................................................................... 44
Appendix VI: Methodology for affordability ........................................................................ 45
Calculating affordability ................................................................................................. 45
Commercial – linked closely to residential .................................................................... 47
Industrial customers care about alternatives................................................................. 48
Power – marginal buyer ................................................................................................ 49
Our pricing model.......................................................................................................... 50
Appendix VII: 2005 gas pricing policy................................................................................ 53
History ........................................................................................................................... 53
Appendix VIII: Prefecture level HV markets....................................................................... 54
Appendix IV: China’s major gas pipelines ......................................................................... 55
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