德意志银行：医疗耗材个股分析

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Deutsche Bank: Path to accelerated growth- Shandong Weigao
Industry: Medical Devices
Date: Aug. 25th 2010
Page: 50

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关键词：德意志银行 个股分析 德意志 accelerated Accelerate 个股 德意志银行 医疗 耗材

Valuation ............................................................................................ 5
Target price of HK$44 based on 36x 2011E EPS of HK$1.22 ...................................................5
Trading close to the mid-cycle valuation ...................................................................................7
DCF valuation at HK$45 per share ............................................................................................7
Investment themes............................................................................ 8
Investment positives.................................................................................................................8
Market analysis................................................................................ 11
Market leadership in single-use medical consumables...........................................................11
Orthopaedics: Leveraging Medtronic technology and reputable brand name ........................12
Blood purification: ready to be the largest local player after capacity build up and
hemodialysis JV ......................................................................................................................14
Revenue growth drivers.................................................................. 15
We forecast top line to grow at a 29% CAGR over 2010-14E ................................................15
Macro environment favors consumable-based device companies .........................................17
New product launches to meet market demand ....................................................................20
Margins............................................................................................. 24
Margins buoyed by shift to higher-value-added products.......................................................24
Deep dive: dialysis and stent.......................................................... 26
Quantifying Weigao’s opportunity in the dialysis market........................................................26
China’s Drug-eluting stent (DES) market.................................................................................31
Company profile .............................................................................. 34
Manufacturer of premium medical consumables in China......................................................34
Company history.....................................................................................................................34
Ownership structure ...............................................................................................................35
Manufacturing sites ................................................................................................................35
Employees ..............................................................................................................................35
Sales network supports revenue generation...........................................................................36
Mergers and acquisitions........................................................................................................37
Management profile................................................................................................................38
Investment risks .............................................................................. 45
Company risks ........................................................................................................................45
Macro risks .............................................................................................................................45