UBS--The real reason why yen appreciation needs to be --100831

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The real reason why yen appreciation
needs to be stopped
􀂄 Executive summary
Yen appreciation needs to be stopped because a higher yen could impede a transition
from an export-led to a self-sustained recovery phase, not because a higher yen increases
the risk of an economic downturn.
􀂄 Watch
The BoJ decided to supply money markets with ¥10trn worth of fixed-rate 6m funds, in
addition to the ¥200trn worth of 0.1% 3m funds that it has been offering, thus within
expectations. The stimulus package is somewhat small, funded only by reserve funds.
These measures are only likely to reduce the risks of further yen appreciation and an
economic freefall. In order to reverse the yen’s trend, unsterilization by an unlimited
supply of liquidity (similar to past special operations aimed at backing corporate finance)
and forex intervention may be necessary. To eliminate economic uncertainties and
deflationary concerns, we believe fiscal expansion over a few years to realize the
government’s growth strategies would be needed, and state clearly that fiscal
consolidation would be implemented only after deflation is overcome, thus significantly
revising the government’s medium-term fiscal framework.

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关键词：Appreciation Reason needs ATION Eason UBS Reason Why Appreciation Yen