发帖
雷达卡
格式：PDF
页数：35
目录：
A change in view. Our call in late May was that tech would likely range-
trade until late August and would then break upwards into 4Q, with
stabilising macro conditions. Instead, we now see a further worsening in the
macro outlook and hence are downgrading our view. Supportive valuations
and strong bearish consensus stop us from taking an outright negative view.
■ Macro conditions worsening faster than we thought. Given recent
performance and negative news flow, we realise our call will be considered
late. It is, but only if one believes that most of the negative news is already
out and from here on things improve sequentially, relative to expectations.
Although concerns on developed-market consumer demand started in May,
we believe trends in US have worsened. More importantly, we now believe
that the risks to still-strong corporate tech capex have increased.
■ Rallies likely to get shorted unless macro improves. NJA tech is down 8%
YTD (13% from its April peak), underperforming by 7% from both points. It
was, however, up 109% in 2009 (the market was +68%). Given our view that
macro risks have increased, we believe that there is an equal chance of
valuations hitting -1 s.d. (15% downside), as there are valuations staying
around averages (5% upside). Unless macro conditions improve sustainably,
we believe that most tech rallies (stimulus/QE/contrarian driven) would get
shorted.
■ Portfolio view is to hold large-cap quality and product cycle themes. Longer
term investors should hold on to secular themes given valuations are
inexpensive.
京公网安备 11010802022788号
