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雷达卡
时间：2010.9.3
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内容：
The economy
A softening growth outlook will push G-4 central banks to expand QE,
others to slow normalization. EM is in sweet spot as waning external
demand is offset by domestic demand supported by strong capital inflows.
• Asset allocation
Slowing but still positive growth is good for bond duration and curve
flatteners. It favours credit over equity exposure. With greater risk in the
US, we stay overweight EM across asset classes. We retain deflation
hedges, such as long bonds vs commodities.
• Top assets to own, and to avoid
The search for yield favours commercial property, which currently offers
yields of close to 6%. Raise exposure to UK commercial property.
• Fixed income
Slowing growth, central banks moving towards easing, and the demand
for carry should continue to push long-term yields lower. Stay long and
in flatteners. Overweight Euro area high-yielders, EM local bonds, and
US MBS.
• Credit
Focus risk on relative value trades, but retain small overweights in higheryielding
credits: US high yield, AAA CMBS, and subordinated Consumer
ABS. OW in European Lower Tier II bonds vs senior bank debt and OW
similarly rated Build America Bonds vs US Corporates.
• Equities
Stay long in EM vs DM equities. Take part profit in the Industrials underweight
given positive surprises in August US ISM and Chinese manufacturing
PMI. Our overweight in banks suffered a heavy loss in August,
mostly due to US banks. We stay overweight as we believe that the selloff
in bank stocks in August was overdone.
• Currencies
With growth uncertainties dominating and weak US data, August patterns
should persist into September: higher JPY and CHF, lower commodity
currencies, and a range-bound EUR/USD.
• Commodities
Evidence that the pace of global growth is continuing to slow and increased
fears around deflation are clear negatives for commodities. Stay
UW crude oil and base metals but OW agriculture as supply is tight.
Global Markets Outlook and Strategy(0000002A09022W).pdf
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