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The economic environment has turned more challenging
As the global economy comes out of recession and stimulus packages start to fade,
the demand environment for metals remains challenging. Following a substantial
easing in monetary policy, the balance sheets of financial institutions have improved
but credit growth remains rather muted. Although government debt initially pared the
contraction in private sector consumption, it is now at what we believe are
unsustainably high levels in some countries. These are factors which can help
explain why potential GDP growth rates have generally come under pressure.
Disinflation in the short-run, inflation in the medium-term
Indicators such as money velocity, monetary base/reserves of deposit taking
institutions and M1/monetary base all suggest that the inflationary threat remains
subdued for now. Fiscal tightening in Southern European nations will likely increase
the disinflationary risks in the region. In the US, subdued upward pressure on prices
emanating from slack in the economy has recently been exacerbated by an
appreciating USD. Nevertheless, high levels of government debt and persistently
high budget deficits continue to create medium-term inflation risks.
Despite disinflation in OECD, metals prices will stay firm…
Lower potential GDP growth is never bullish for the industrial metals and our base
case is indeed for lower metals demand growth in the coming years, particularly in
the developed nations. Yet, despite the disinflationary environment in advanced
countries, economic growth and also inflation is set to run at elevated levels over
coming years in emerging market nations. Influenced by this, we continue to
believe that metals demand will be strong enough for supply shortages to reemerge.
This should lend medium-term support to industrial metal prices.
…as demand will stay buoyant in emerging markets
While deflation is usually bearish for gold, what governments do to fight it is not.
Crucially, with a deceleration in potential GDP growth and disinflation for some
mature economies, a significant reduction in debt will be challenging to achieve.
This concern, coupled with very low interest rates and hence a very low cost of
carry, could further support demand for gold. An additional source of gold demand
will come from apprehension that some OECD governments could potentially try
to inflate their debt away over the medium-term. Moreover, inflationary pressures
in emerging economies will likely keep gold demand firm in places like India. We
therefore maintain our medium-term price forecast of $1,500/oz
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