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Barclays: Asia-Pac Credit Insights: re-evaluating the landscape into Q4
Date: 1 Sep. 2010
Page: 55
Credit Strategy: Low Treasury yields and flows to support valuations ........................... 2
We expect Asian credit valuations to be well supported over the rest of 2010, with
returns being primarily generated by a compression of credit spreads. We favour a
barbell positioning, underweighting high grade corporates and high yield sovereigns
while overweighting high yield corporates and high quality quasi-sovereigns.
Summary recommendations................................................................................................... 7
High Grade Corporates: Rising event risk ............................................................................. 9
We see rising event risk in the high grade segment, particularly in the resources, utilities
and telecom sectors. Low all-in yields make it attractive for opportunistic issuers to
undertake debt-funded M&A or shareholder-friendly activities. Even so, we remain broadly
constructive of the credits under coverage, given improved earnings outlooks and relatively
robust balance sheets. Our Overweights are centred on BBB rated issuers, where we see
stable to improving credit profiles and where some bonds still offer value.
High Yield Corporates: Stretch for yield.............................................................................. 23
We remain constructive on the Asian HY sector. Although prices of some high yield
corporate bonds are approaching levels seen in mid-April, current levels are still
materially wider on a spread basis. We expect the stretch for yield and the structural
flows into emerging market bond funds to provide support for the sector in the near
term. However, supply could create near-term volatility.
Financial Institutions: Technical and fundamental underpinnings intact – but
opportunities limited .............................................................................................................. 34
We continue to recommend moving down the capital structure of fundamentally sound
banks. But we recognise this is proving difficult to execute given the dearth of attractive
opportunities and limited secondary market liquidity, especially in Asia-ex Japan. In the
senior bond space, we see most value in Korean banks and are neutral on Indian banks.
Issuer index, A-Z...................................................................................................................... 52
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