2010诺贝尔经济学奖有奖预测活动

美国哈佛大学 经济系 政治经济学教授 Albert Alesina 因其针对政治与宏观经济之间的关系所进行的理论和实证研究，尤其是关于政治经济周期的研究而获奖

伯南克美联储主席

别人的预测。面对过去的经济萧条，看上去是在关注政治-经济的关系。经济奖好像一直是给研究经济理论的学者，而不是官员。


Nobel Prize for Economics 2010 Predictions                        By Amol Agrawal                                                        On visiting Nobel Prize website, I found out that this year economics prize will be given on October 11, 2010(Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel is a more correct award name).
Who will win it this time?
I havent come across any website/link predicting some picks. Thomson Reuters come out with a list but it is towards late September. Other bloggers/economists will come out with a list as the award date nears.
Last year, couple of choices cropped up and most popular on the list were William Nordhaus (Sterling Professor of Economics, Yale University) and  Martin Weitzman ( Professor of Economics, Harvard University) fo their work on Environment Economics.  Then names of Fama/French, Shiller/Thaler etc were also on the list.
Lat year I also said this which is apt even now:
This year’s award is going to be interesting as world  economy goes through sharpest recession/crisis since Great Depression. The crisis  has seen nearly every modern eco theory/idea coming under severe scanner.  So, any pick will be a challenge for the Commmitee.The last time such a challenge was faced is for 1998. In 1997 the nobel prize was given to Scholes and Merton for Option Pricing Theory. The duo were partners st LTCM which collapsed in 1998 leading to much criticism for the award. It was then given in 1998 to Amartya Sen whose candidature was seen as non-controversial and was long-pending.
This time the challenge is much more given the severity of the crisis. Would it be someone from Institutional Economics to stress on their importance? Or someone from  Environmental Economics to push research/thinking in this very important concern? I really don’t know.
The award was finally given to Ostrom and Williamson for their work on commons and institutions. So in a way I was kind of right.
The same situation applies even now and infact it is quite worse. So many economists have come forward criticising state of economics and calling it dark age of economics.  So, big resurrection is needed and non-controversial names to be picked. Given the choices available, environmental economics looks the safest bet.
I will keep pointing to links etc as soon as others chip ion with their predictions as well. Vistors to this blog, kindly respond. Who do you think will take the award in these pressure times in field of economics?
Update:
Thomson Reuters comes out with its 2010 predictions:
Alberto Alesina
Nathaniel Ropes Professor of Political Economics, Department of Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA USA
Why: for theoretical and empirical studies on the relationship between politics and macroeconomics, and specifically for research on politico-economic cycle
Nobuhiro Kiyotaki
Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Princeton University, Princeton NJ USA
Why: for formulation of the Kiyotaki-Moore model, which describes how small shocks to an economy may lead to a cycle of lower output resulting from a decline in collateral values that creates a restrictive credit environment
John H. Moore
George Watson’s and Daniel Stewart’s Professor of Political Economics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, and Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, London School of Economics, London, England
Why: for formulation of the Kiyotaki-Moore model, which describes how small shocks to an economy may lead to a cycle of lower output resulting from a decline in collateral values that creates a restrictive credit environment
Kevin M. Murphy
George J. Stigler Distinguished Service Professor of Economics, University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Chicago, IL USA, and Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford CA USA
Why: for pioneering empirical research in social economics, including wage inequality and labor demand, unemployment, addiction, and the economic return of investment in medical research, among other topics Interesting choices again. Though I doubt whether Alesina will make it. He has lately been in the news for his analysis and comments that fiscal consolidation leads to growth. But there is no doubt that his work on political economy is very good.
Kiyotaki and Moore’s works are much in demand after this crisis. They truly deserve it for shaping the macro-finance models and linking financial cycles to macroeconomic ones.
Murphy is an interesting and different choice. A great mind who has linked economics with many different fields.
Thomson Reuters has also released a pending list and each one could get as well:
•2002-2005: Robert J. Barro; Eugene F. Fama and Kenneth R. French; Paul Michael Romer; Richard H. Thaler
•2006: Jagdish N. Bhagwati and Avinash K. Dixit; Dale W. Jorgenson; Oliver D. Hart and Bengt R. Holmstrom
•2007: Elhanan Helpman and Gene M. Grossman; Jean Tirole; Robert B. Wilson and Paul R. Milgrom
•2008: Lars P. Hansen and Thomas J. Sargent, and Christopher A. Sims; Martin S. Feldstein; Armen A. Alchian and Harold Demsetz
•2009: Ernst Fehr and Matthew J. Rabin; William D. Nordhaus and Martin L. Weitzman; John B. Taylor and Jordi Gali and Mark L. Gertler
That is quite a list. May the best one win.

奥利弗哈特 契约理论

我看好让?梯若尔总不能每年都是美国人吧

美国哈佛大学 经济系 政治经济学教授 Albert Alesina 因其针对政治与宏观经济之间的关系所进行的理论和实证研究

罗伯特·巴罗(RobertJ.Barro)

阿尔伯特 阿莱辛那（Albert Alesina），政治与宏观经济学关系的理论与经验研究，尤其是政治经济周期方面的研究。

我认为应该是热若尔 罗兰教授
09年经济学奖颁给了新制度学派的奥利佛威廉姆森和公共选择学派的奥斯特罗姆，这两个学者都不太使用数学模型，奥斯特罗姆和威廉森则分别沿着“市场以外”和“企业以内”的制度路线，重新延伸了传统经济学的内涵，这正预示着经济学奖在向制度方向回归。
中国，东欧以及苏联的由计划经济向市场经济的大规模转轨也将近有二十年，不管改革路径的设计和经济表现是好还是坏，它还是受到了一些关注，所以，研究制度转轨方向的学者应该会评奖委员会被考虑。
    热若尔 罗兰教授多年来一直致力于转轨经济学的研究,他在该领域做出了杰出贡献,是转轨经济学这一激动人心和举足轻重的领域的重要人物，经济学奖有可能颁给他

这也太宽了吧……