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【名称及出版时间】： China 12th Five Year Plan preview – equity investing do’s and don’ts - 2010.10.8
【来源】：高华
【文件格式】： pdf
【页数】：31
【目录或简介】：
12-5 – five key themes to take center stage
The 12th Five year plan (’12-5’) will be China’s key policy document for
2011-2015. We expect an extension of major 11th Five year plan (’11-5’)
themes with some new focus areas. We identify the five top themes as
income redistribution/social welfare, improving consumption, industry
efficiency/resource conservation, R&D/high tech upgrades and
urbanization/inland migration. Sectors with unilaterally positive
exposure to 12-5 objectives are staples, retail, healthcare, IT/internet
and alternative energy. Auto, industrials/machinery are in tune with
most themes, while cyclicals, property and energy exposure is more
mixed. We expect limited 12-5 focus on telecom, banks and insurance.
Be selective – our suggested do’s and don’ts
12-5 Do’s: Do invest in harmony with big picture policy longer-term;
do recognize that 12-5 targets may be met with varying degrees of
success/pace; do differentiate between stocks even intra-sector, given
variations in relative positioning. 12-5 Don’ts: Don’t focus solely on 12-
5 policy potential and overlook weak fundamentals; don’t overpay for
what might be priced in; don’t assume five-year govt policy will always
be aligned with investors’ nearer-term objectives at points in time.
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