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by Merijn Knibbe (Author)
About the Author
Merijn Knibbe was born in Veldhoven, The Netherlands. He studied economics at the Rijksuniversiteit (University of) Groningen. He has written a Ph. D. thesis about production and income in Dutch agriculture between 1850 and 1950 and a habilitation on developments in Frisian agriculture between 1505 and 1832. He has also published on historical flows of feed, food and minerals in the Netherlands as well as many blogs on economic developments after the Great Financial Crisis and the extent to which economic metrics and models can be used to map and analyse the nature of this crisis.
About this Book
Ideally, scientific theory and scientific measurement should develop in tandem, but in recent years this has not been the case in economics. There used to be a time when leading economists, or their students, established or led statistical offices and took care that the measurements were consistent with the theory (and vice versa). Not anymore. Macroeconomic theorists and macroeconomic statisticians do not even speak the same language any longer. They do use the same words, such as ‘consumption’, ‘investments’ or ‘unemployment’ but the meanings can often be different.
This book maps the differences between macroeconomic theory and measurement and explores them in some detail while also tracking their intellectual, historical and, in some cases, ideological origins. It also explores the possible policy implications. In doing so, the book draws on two separate strands of literature which are seldom used in unison: macro-statistical manuals and theoretical macro-papers. By doing so, the book contributes to the effort to bridge the gap between them without compromising on the idea that a meaningful science of economics should, in the end, be based upon individual people and households and their social and cultural embedding instead of a ‘representative consumer’, or Robinson Crusoe figure.
This work is essential reading for students, economists, statisticians, and professionals.
Brief Contents
1 Introduction 1
1.1 Why this book? 2
1.2 Conceptual differences extend to the cores of neoclassical macro theory and statistical macro-measurement 5
1.3 The two very different meanings of ‘micro-founded’ 9
1.4 The differences between macro-models and macro-statistics have a history 10
1.5 Macroeconomic events outside the framework of neoclassical macroeconomic models as well as macroeconomic statistics 12
1.6 The changing boundary of our idea of ‘the (macro)economy’ and the immensely measurable nature of monetary transactions 14
1.7 Hey, national accounts are political accounts 22
1.8 Overarching integration: the modern flow of funds / national accounts 23
1.9 An overview of the key differences between DSGE macromodels and macro-measurements 25
1.10 Mitchell-style business cycle indicators, the accounts and DSGE models 28
1.11 The conceptual model of the book (1): five interrelated phases of development of a macro-statistical variable 30
1.12 The conceptual model of the book (2): cases 31
1.13 The conceptual model of the book (3): meta-formulas 32
2 Money, prices and pricing 38
2.1 Introduction 38
2.2 Transactions 38
2.3 Prices and pricing 41
2.4 Money 42
2.5 The nature prices and pricing in a monetary society 47
2.6 The nature of the statistical production boundary 59
2.7 National accounts as an instrument of control 68
3 Money and how it’s estimated 75
3.1 Introduction 75
3.2 Money and its measurement 75
3.2.1 Monies, manuals and measurement 75
3.2.2 The flow of funds as an overarching model 77
3.2.3 The monthly monetary press release of the ECB and the macroeconomic formula of everything 84
3.2.4 Single accounting concepts of the account of money (1): Friedman and Schwartz 88
3.2.5 Single accounting concepts of the amount of money (2): Divisia indices 91
3.2.6 Quadruple accounting aggregates: money and debt 94
3.3 Money and the models 97
4 Labor and unemployment 105
4.1 Introduction: the discussion at the heart ofmacroeconomics 105
4.2 The concept of involuntary unemployment 106
4.3 Measured employment, unemployment and labor flows 112
4.3.1 Where do the concepts and definitions come from? A bit about the International Labor Organization 112
4.3.2 The ILO definitions of employment and unemployment and the influence of the US Congress 113
4.3.3 The ILO ‘periodic table’ of monetary and non-monetary work, unemployment and leisure 116
4.3.4 The difference between people and jobs 118
4.4 Neoclassical ideas about labor and the working of the labor market 121
4.4.1 Concepts and definitions: leisure and the difference between people and hours 121
4.4.2 Deconstructing the future 125
4.4.3 Fundamental and non-fundamental ways to make the models consistent with high unemployment 125
4.4.4 Models which take the statistics at face value 127
4.5 Voluntary and involuntary declines in hours of labor and unemployment during the Great Depression and beyond 129
4.5.1 The anomaly 129
4.5.2 The institutional/statistical explanation of the anomaly 130
4.5.3 The neoclassical explanation of labor during and after the Great Depression 135
4.6 Summary 140
5 Capital (and land) 145
5.1 Introduction 145
5.2 The (r)evolutionary nature of capital 145
5.3 Capital and the statisticians 150
5.3.1 Concepts and definitions 150
5.3.2 Measurements 154
5.3.3 Valuations 156
5.3.4 Volumes 159
5.3.5 Natural capital? 162
5.4 Capital and the neoclassicals 164
5.4.1 The concept, implicit or otherwise 164
5.4.2 Back to the way ahead 167
5.5 A comparison 170
6 Consumption 177
6.1 Introduction: the concept 177
6.2 Consumption in the national accounts: definitions and operationalizations 178
6.3 Consumption in the DSGE models 185
6.4 A comparison 194
7 I stands for gross fixed capital formation 198
7.1 Introduction 198
7.2 Concepts: the changing nature and definition of gross fixed capital formation 199
7.3 Statistical definitions 202
7.4 ‘Investment’ as a variable in the DSGE models 205
7.5 Time consistency 211
7.6 Measurement and our intertemporal understanding of the macroeconomy: the rise and decline of the investment rate of the Western world, ca. 1807–2018 212
7.6.1 The USA: exceptionalism 213
7.6.2 France and the UK: catching up versus falling behind 214
7.6.3 Germany, the Netherlands and the Nordics: archetypes 215
7.6.4 Italy, Spain 216
7.7 Overview 220
8 Unreal production 226
8.1 Introduction: how real is ‘real’ production 226
8.2 Single and double deflation 227
8.3 Putting formulas to the test: superlative index numbers and Dutch agricultural production and prices, 1851–2016 233
9 Macroeconomic unit labor costs as we measure them are no indicator of competitivity 243
9.1 Introduction 243
9.2 NULC, RULC and ULC 243
Epilogue 251
Index 254
Pages: 278
Publisher: Routledge; 1 edition (2020)
Language: English
ASIN: B082885R78
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