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Summary
Despite significant financial market volatility and economic policy uncertainty, the
global economic recovery is proceeding as Fitch Ratings expected. Its pace is
uneven across countries and regions, and it is largely due to accommodative policy
support and emerging‐market dynamism.
Fitch has marginally revised up its projections for world growth compared with the
projections set out in the October version of the Global Economic Outlook (GEO;
see under Related Research): to 3.4% for 2010 (from 3.2% in the October 2010
GEO), 3.0% for 2011 (from 2.9%), and 3.3% for 2012 (from 3.0%).
Major advanced economies (MAEs) performed in line with expectations, despite a
rebalancing of growth momentum in Q310. In Q210 growth accelerated considerably
in Europe and the UK compared with the previous quarter, and slowed for Japan
and the US. In Q310 growth picked up in Japan and the US, and moderated in
Europe. Fitch still projects MAE growth of 2.4% for 2010, while projections for 2011
and 2012 have been revised up marginally to 2.3% and 2.5%, respectively.
In contrast to the mixed performance of MAEs, emerging markets continued to
outperform expectations. Fitch raised its 2010 forecasts for China, Brazil, and India
due to still buoyant economic growth. However, the agency revised down its
Russian forecast as the pace of recovery proved weak, partly as a result of the
severe drought and heatwave in the summer. Fitch forecasts growth of 8.4% for
these four countries (the BRICs) in 2010, and 7.4% for each of 2011 and 2012.
In the US, the likelihood of a double‐dip recession has receded considerably and
Fitch has raised its growth forecasts by 0.6% for each of 2011 and 2012, bringing
estimates to above‐trend growth levels of 3.2% and 3.3% for 2011 and 2012,
respectively. In line with the revised growth outlook, unemployment is now
expected by Fitch to moderate, to 9.1% in 2011 and 8.7% in 2012.
Accommodative policy measures extended by authorities have provided a boost to
Fitch’s growth outlook, in particular the extension of a number of tax measures and
introduction of a second round of quantitative easing (QE2) in November. Highfrequency
activity has also turned more positive, reflecting strength in private
consumption and corporate profitability. Despite the improved outlook, the
agency’s view has remained that the recovery will continue to be mild by historical
standards in light of still weak labour and housing markets.
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