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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月美国航空运输行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：188
【目录或简介】：
Attractive on freight given early cycle qualities and
signs of a volume rebound: 4Q09 should mark the
end of negative data trends, a fact underappreciated by
the street. Y/Y comps are becoming easier with no sign
of a post-holiday slowdown in freight. Moreover, with
inventories low across the system, restocking could
provide additional upside. Within this context of a
surprising recovery, we prefer names with greater
leverage to volume (rails/parcel). Rails remain our top
pick. 2010 estimates are too low across freight, but
most notably in rails. As double-digit volume growth,
reaccelerating pricing, and productivity gains converge
in 1H/10, we expect earnings revisions and improving
sentiment to drive material upside in rail stocks.
Rails: Best positioned for 1H/10 recovery. Highlights:
1) Rail EPS have troughed and 2010 consensus is too
low. 2) Volume run-rates suggest substantial Y/Y growth
in 1H/10, which should drive EPS revisions. Volume
commentary improved across nearly all commodities. 3)
Productivity gains driving much better cost performance,
which should produce sig. op. leverage in a rebound. 4)
Pricing gains slowed, esp. in truck competitive products.
However, concerns about a collapse appear overdone.
We see evidence pricing could reaccelerate in 1H/10.
Warming up to parcel. Valuation is more reasonable
with potential for strong leverage to a volume recovery.
Concerns about negative secular trends remain.
Highlights: 1) Volumes recovering sharply, esp. int’l. No
sign of a post-holiday letdown; 2) Pricing remains
aggressive and yields are weak; 3) More cost cutting
coming, but return of merit pay could limit op leverage;
4) 1Q10 guidance disappointing, but looks conservative.
Truckload will likely prove to be later cycle. 4Q09
supports our view that a large pricing recovery could
take longer than expected. Highlights: 1) Demand is
improving, but utilization gains underwhelmed. Fleet
reductions may be limiting utilization upside. 2) Signs
that cost cutting may not be as sustainable as other
modes. 3) Pricing trends stable but a sharp recovery
appears less likely. Weak pricing didn’t spare brokers.
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