《A mathematical model of national-level food system sustainability》
---
作者:
Conor Goold, Simone Pfuderer, William H. M. James, Nik Lomax, Fiona
Smith, Lisa M. Collins
---
最新提交年份:
2020
---
英文摘要:
The global food system faces various endogeneous and exogeneous, biotic and abiotic risk factors, including a rising human population, higher population densities, price volatility and climate change. Quantitative models play an important role in understanding food systems\' expected responses to shocks and stresses. Here, we present a stylised mathematical model of a national-level food system that incorporates domestic supply of a food commodity, international trade, consumer demand, and food commodity price. We derive a critical compound parameter signalling when domestic supply will become unsustainable and the food system entirely dependent on imports, which results in higher commodity prices, lower consumer demand and lower inventory levels. Using Bayesian estimation, we apply the dynamic food systems model to infer the sustainability of the UK pork industry. We find that the UK pork industry is currently sustainable but because the industry is dependent on imports to meet demand, a decrease in self-sufficiency below 50% (current levels are 60-65%) would lead it close to the critical boundary signalling its collapse. Our model provides a theoretical foundation for future work to determine more complex causal drivers of food system vulnerability.
---
中文摘要:
全球粮食系统面临各种内生和外生、生物和非生物风险因素,包括人口增加、人口密度增加、价格波动和气候变化。定量模型在理解食物系统对冲击和压力的预期反应方面发挥着重要作用。在这里,我们提出了一个国家级食品体系的风格化数学模型,该模型包含了食品商品的国内供应、国际贸易、消费者需求和食品商品价格。我们得出了一个关键的复合参数,表明国内供应将变得不可持续,粮食系统将完全依赖进口,从而导致商品价格上涨、消费者需求下降和库存水平下降。利用贝叶斯估计,我们应用动态食品系统模型来推断英国猪肉行业的可持续性。我们发现,英国猪肉行业目前是可持续的,但由于该行业依赖进口来满足需求,自给自足率下降到50%以下(当前水平为60-65%)将导致其接近临界边界,表明其崩溃。我们的模型为今后确定食物系统脆弱性更复杂的因果驱动因素提供了理论基础。
---
分类信息:
一级分类:Economics 经济学
二级分类:General Economics 一般经济学
分类描述:General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
--
一级分类:Physics 物理学
二级分类:Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述:Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体(人类或其他)的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统(如能源网、运输网络)的物理和工程。
--
一级分类:Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类:Economics 经济学
分类描述:q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学,包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
--
---
PDF下载:
-->
![](https://bbs-cdn.datacourse.cn/static/image/filetype/pdf.gif)