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矩阵相干性与Nystrom方法 外文文献专区 何人来此 2022-3-10 0 684 何人来此 2022-3-10 13:50:00
处理未知未知数：极小值的识别与选择 未知输入的分数阶动力学传感 外文文献专区 可人4 2022-3-10 0 446 可人4 2022-3-10 08:42:01
Europe’s energy position present & future - Report 2008 attachment 环境经济学 tyn 2009-3-22 1 2288 三重虫 2021-7-26 20:39:08
北美EXAM FM 20130614 pass 准备心得 金融类 toooth 2013-6-15 22 10208 iiooiookoo 2014-8-15 15:00:35
An introduction to the theory of point processes volume I & II attachment 计量经济学与统计软件 shifaziran2007 2013-8-13 0 1889 shifaziran2007 2013-8-13 10:53:29
悬赏 求助Obesity and its comorbidities: - [!reward_solved!] attachment 求助成功区 刀剑林 2013-7-23 1 936 xjqxxjjqq 2013-7-23 19:57:10
悬赏 A dipeptide and an amino acid present in whey protein hydrolysate increase trans - [!reward_solved!] attachment 求助成功区 flyinn 2013-6-24 2 1285 flyinn 2013-6-24 13:19:55
悬赏 Value in business and industrial marketing: Past, present, and future - [!reward_solved!] attachment 求助成功区 xiaodoudou2079 2013-6-22 4 1379 xiaodoudou2079 2013-6-22 16:24:01
Free Mck New articles on industry dynamics attachment 行业分析报告 just_tonight 2013-5-30 17 2121 yunaiquan 2013-6-22 08:42:31
悬赏 求文献：Database marketing. Past, present, and future - [!reward_solved!] attachment 求助成功区 xiaomianxin 2013-5-18 1 811 Toyotomi 2013-5-18 11:15:54
The Past, Present and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting attachment 计量经济学与统计软件 nitmithv 2004-12-2 7 3380 fleabane20 2013-4-14 21:09:50
Product Engineering Tools and Methods Based on Virtual Reality attach_img 运营管理（物流与供应链管理） Toyotomi 2013-3-24 0 1990 Toyotomi 2013-3-24 11:33:33
Monetary Policy Implementation Theory:past&Present attachment 金融学（理论版） 五点天就黑 2007-12-11 0 2977 五点天就黑 2012-1-3 20:23:17
Supply chain modeling - past, present and future attachment 商学院 MEI眼泪 2007-9-25 0 2208 MEI眼泪 2011-12-21 07:18:27
分享：The new economic geography ：past， present and future attachment 国民经济管理 yanfang 2007-4-10 2 2914 janewxz 2011-11-20 12:03:18
[下载]CDOs in China Past and Present attachment 金融学（理论版） peterking 2006-8-21 0 1855 peterking 2011-10-24 19:48:43
[分享]The U.S. Equity Return Premium Past, Present, and Future attachment 金融学（理论版） ccsxghcwb 2009-4-29 0 1662 ccsxghcwb 2009-4-29 11:10:00
Ramsey_Model Present Value Hamiltonian attachment 宏观经济学 morpheusarthas 2008-11-20 0 3589 morpheusarthas 2008-11-20 21:58:00
China!ˉs Financial System:Past, Present, and Future attachment 金融学（理论版） haha622867 2008-3-27 0 2210 haha622867 2008-3-27 19:07:00
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分享 An Introduction to Econophysics
accumulation 2015-3-1 00:54
This book concerns the use of concepts from statistical physics in the description of financial systems. Specifically, the authors illustrate the scaling concepts used in probability theory, in critical phenomena, and in fully developed turbulent fluids. These concepts are then applied to financial time series to gain new insights into the behavior of financial markets. The authors also present a new stochastic model that displays several of the statistical properties observed in empirical data. Usually in the study of economic systems it is possible to investigate the system at different scales. But it is often impossible to write down the 'microscopic' equation for all the economic entities interacting within a given system. Statistical physics concepts such as stochastic dynamics, short- and long-range correlations, self-similarity and scaling permit an understanding of the global behavior of economic systems without first having to work out a detailed microscopic description of the same system. This book will be of interest both to physicists and to economists. Physicists will find the application of statistical physics concepts to economic systems interesting and challenging, as economic systems are among the most intriguing and fascinating complex systems that might be investigated. Economists and workers in the financial world will find useful the presentation of empirical analysis methods and wellformulated theoretical tools that might help describe systems composed of a huge number of interacting subsystems. This book is intended for students and researchers studying economics or physics at a graduate level and for professionals in the field of finance. Undergraduate students possessing some familarity with probability theory or statistical physics should also be able to learn from the book. DR ROSARIO N. MANTEGNA is interested in the empirical and theoretical modeling of complex systems. Since 1989, a major focus of his research has been studying financial systems using methods of statistical physics. In particular, he has originated the theoretical model of the truncated Levy flight and discovered that this process describes several of the statistical properties of the Standard and Poor's 500 stock index. He has also applied concepts of ultrametric spaces and cross-correlations to the modeling of financial markets. Dr Mantegna is a Professor of Physics at the University of Palermo. DR H. EUGENE STANLEY has served for 30 years on the physics faculties of MIT and Boston University. He is the author of the 1971 monograph Introduction to Phase Transitions and Critical Phenomena (Oxford University Press, 1971). This book brought to a. much wider audience the key ideas of scale invariance that have proved so useful in various fields of scientific endeavor. Recently, Dr Stanley and his collaborators have been exploring the degree to which scaling concepts give insight into economics and various problems of relevance to biology and medicine.
个人分类: 金融学|0 个评论
分享 Fun With Fibonacci Flashbacks
insight 2013-5-9 09:16
Fun With Fibonacci Flashbacks Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/08/2013 20:15 -0400 Digital Dickweed Fibonacci Reality When a 'blog' puts the words Fibonacci, Gold, and Stocks in the same post, it well and truly earns its 'tin-foil-hat'-wearing "digital dickweed" honors. And so, we present, for the edification of all those who believe in gold as the only sound numeraire for judging value; for those who believe it's never different this time; and for those who believe in dead-cat-bounces; the Dow in Gold in the 30s, 70s, and Now... The crash in nominal 'price' is followed by a Fib 23.6% retracement rally as hope triumphs over adversity... only for reality to rapidly re-emerge... Charts: Bloomberg
个人分类: market|37 次阅读|0 个评论
分享 Guest Post: The Fed And Goldilocks Economic Forecasting
insight 2012-6-25 15:43
Guest Post: The Fed And Goldilocks Economic Forecasting Submitted by Tyler Durden on 06/22/2012 15:57 -040 Submitted by Lance Roberts of StreetTalk Advisors The Fed And Goldilocks Economic Forecasting Beginning in 2011 the Federal Reserve begin releasing its economic forecast for the present year and two years forward covering GDP, Unemployment, and Inflation. The question is after 18 months of forecasting - just how good has the Fed at forecasting these economic variables? I have compiled the data from each of the releases for each category and compared it to the real figures and used a current trend analysis for future estimates. GDP When it comes to the economy the Fed has consistently overstated economic strength. Take a look at the chart and table. In January of 2011 the Fed was predicting GDP growth for 2011 at 3.7%. Actual real GDP (inflation adjusted) was 1.6% or a negative 56% difference. The estimate at that time for 2012 was almost 4% versus 1.8% currently. We have been stating repeatedly over the last 2 years that we are in for a low growth economy due to the debt deleveraging, deficits and continued fiscal and monetary policies that are retardants for economic prosperity. The simple fact is that when an economy requires nearly $5 of debt to provide $1 of economic growth the engine of prosperity is broken. As of the latest Fed meeting the forecast for 2013 and 2014 economic growth has been revised down as the realization of a slow-growth economy has been recognized. However, the current annualized trend of GDP suggests growth rates in the next two years that will roughly be half of the Fed's current estimates of 2.85 and 3.4%. A recession in 2013 is a strong likelihood given the current annualized trend of economic growth since 2000. A recession followed by a rebound in 2014 would leave economic growth running at annual rate close to 1%-1.5% versus the current estimate of nearly 3%. What is very important is the long run outlook of 2.6% economic growth. That rate of growth is very sub-par and, over the longer term, does not sustain the level of incomes and employment that were enjoyed in previous decades. Unemployment The Fed is as overly optimistic about the level of unemployment as they are about economic growth. One of the Fed's mandates is "full employment." At the beginning of 2011 the Fed predicted the unemployment rate for the year would be 8.7% for 2011, 7.8% for 2012 and 6.95% for 2013. The unemployment rate for 2011 was 9.1% and is currently at 8.2% currently likely to rise in the coming reports ahead as the economy again weakens. The Fed sees 2014 unemployment falling to 7% and ultimately returning to a 5.6% "full employment" rate in the long run. The issue with this full employment prediction really becomes what the definition of reality is. Today, even the average American has begun to question the credibility of the BLS employment reports. Recently even Congress has launched an inquiry into the data collection and analysis methods used to determine employment reports. Since the end of the last recession employment has improved modestly but mostly centered around temporary and lower paying positions. Since mid-2011 there has been a fairly sharp decline in the unemployment rate from 9.1% to 8.2% currently. The main driver of that decline has come from a shrinkage of the labor pool versus substantial increases in employment. In our past employment reports we have discussed the increasing number of individuals that are moving into the "Not In Labor Force" category where they are no longer counted as part of the labor pool. For the Fed the reality of "full employment" and statistical "full employment" are two entirely different things. While the Fed could be very correct at achieving "full employment" of 5.6% in their longer run scenario - it certainly doesn't mean that 94.4% of working age Americans will be gainfully employed. Inflation When it comes to inflation the Fed's outlook, for the most part, have been below reality. In January of 2011 The Fed's prediction for 2011 inflation was 1.5% which was 2% lower than what inflation turned out to be. As of the latest meeting the Fed's 2012 inflation prediction is 1.6%. With current deflationary pressures pulling headline inflation down from 3% at the beginning of this year to 1.7% currently the Fed's prediction appears to be fairly accurate. The question, however, is how long can inflation remain suppressed at or below 2% which is the long run prediction of the Fed? The Fed has much more control over inflationary pressures in the economy than they do at stimulating economic growth or increasing employment. By increasing or decreasing interest rates, using monetary policy tools and coordinated actions the Fed has historically been able to influence inflation. Unfortunately, their actions in this regard can also be directly linked to economic and market booms and busts. What the Fed has much less control over are deflationary pressures. We have discussed that the threat of deflation in the U.S. economy is currently a much greater than inflation. It is also the primary concern of the Fed. However, there are two things that are likely occur that could drive headline inflation higher than the Fed's current long run estimate of 2%. The first is further stimulative action which expands the Fed's balance sheet known as "quantitative easing." The direct impact of these programs, as liquidity is injected into the financial system, has been higher commodity prices which translates to an increase in headline inflation. The second, and more importantly, is that an organic economic recovery will eventually take hold. During real economic expansions where demand is increasing, wages are rising and the velocity of money is accelerating - real levels of higher inflation take hold. However, an organic economic expansion is likely some years away as the balance sheet deleveraging cycle continues globally. Why The Fed Forecasts Like Goldilocks Is the Federal Reserve really as bad at predicting future economic conditions as it appears? The answer is no. The Federal Reserve faces a severe challenge, when communicating to the financial markets and the media, which is the creation of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Imagine that following an FOMC meeting Bernanke stated: "The policies and actions that we have implemented to date have done little to curb economic weakness. The economy is in much worse shape that we have previously communicated as the transmission system of Fed policy through the economy, and the financial markets, is obviously broken." The immediate reaction to such a statement would be a complete collapse of the financial markets. Such a collapse in the financial markets would negatively impact consumer confidence which would subsequently throw the economy into a recession. Conversely, an overly optimistic outlook would lead to an increase of inflationary pressures and asset bubbles. Neither situation is healthy for the economy in the longer term. Therefore, communication from the Federal Reserve must be very guided in its approach - not too hot or cold. This "goldilocks" appoach works to create a "glide path" to the Fed's destination while giving the financial markets and economy time to adjust to the incremental adjustments to forecasts. Let me be clear. I am not making a case for the relevance of the Federal Reserve or its policies. That is another article entirely. What I am stating is that the communications from the Federal Reserve should NEVER be taken at face value. Since the Fed can not communicate its real position at any given time, due to the immediately excessive postive or negative effect on the economy and financial markets, as investors we must read between the lines. The problem for the financial markets, and the mainstream media, is that they tend to extrapolate current estimates indefinitely and generally in an upwardly biased manner. This is not the Fed's objective nor have they been able to repeal the economic and business cycles. The Fed has been slowly guiding economic forecasts lower since 2011. The reality is that 2.6% economic growth is not a boon of economic prosperity, corporate profitability, increasing incomes or a secular bull market. It is also not the "death of America" or the return to the stone age. What is important to understand, as investors, is the impact on investment portfolios, expectated real rates of returns and the realization that higher levels of market volatility with more frequent "booms and busts" are here to stay. Average: 4 Your rating: None Average: 4 ( 7 votes) Tweet Login or register to post comments 7066 reads Printer-friendly version Send to friend Similar Articles You Might Enjoy: Guest Post: Change In Corporate Profits Leads To Market Movements Guest Post: The Return Of Economic Weakness Jan Hatzius On Centrally-Planned Goldilocks New Forecast From NABE 'Professional' Economists Guest Post: 10 More Years Of Low Returns
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