长期预测 l 利用“生命周期”进行长期预测 l 利用市场容量及空间进行预测 l 利用行业规划进行中长期预测 中期预测 l 行业中期预测的定性分析 宏观环境的机会与威胁分析 各细分市场拉动分析 替代产品威胁 l 行业中短期定量分析 l 趋势预测法 简单移动平均 加权移动平均 一次指数平滑 多次指数平滑 趋势外推法 季节波动模型 l 因果分析法 一元回归预测 多元回归预测 消费系数法 弹性系数法 l 其他市场预测方法 投入产出法 系统动力模型 计量经济模型 市场反应模型 马尔科夫预测 新产品预测
The Secondary Mortgage Market: Pass-Through Securities We begin this chapter with a brief description of the evolution of the secondary market. Particular attention is paid to the need for this kind of market and identifying the major organizations that participate in it. We then describe the various types of mortgage-backed securities that have evolved in recent years and provide a framework for analyzing their investment characteristics. Although mortgage-related securities may be offered on many types of mortgage pools, we generally limit our discussion to residential mortgage–backed pools. The chapter concludes with a section on "pricing" two types of mortgage-related securities, and provides an evaluation of characteristics that differentiate these more important security types. The next chapter is a continuation of this one. It provides a detailed analysis of collateralized mortgage obligations (CMOs) and "derivative" securities. It also contains an introduction to commercial mortgage–backed securities.