http://bbs.ecocn.org/forum.php?mod=viewthreadtid=193120extra=page%3D1 本帖最后由 contrary 于 2013-6-25 11:45 编辑 The global cement industry 全球水泥业 Ready-mixed fortunes 水泥业复苏在望？ The world’s cement giants look set for recovery—but will it be durable? 世界水泥巨头似乎复苏在望——但这个势头能否持久？ Jun 22nd 2013 |From the print edition CEMENT is as vital a commodity to fast-growing economies as oil or steel. No other material is as versatile when it comes to building houses, roads and big chunks of infrastructure. It is a huge business: the world’s cement-makers rake in revenues of $250 billion a year. Outside China, which accounts for half of global demand and production and is mainly served by local firms, six vast international firms—Buzzi, Cemex, Heidelberg, Holcim, Italcementi and Lafarge—together have 40% or so of the market. Yet the business rarely attracts much attention. 水泥和石油、钢铁一样，是对快速发展的经济体至关重要的商品。水泥有多种用途，可用于建造房屋、铺设道路和大型基建，其余材料都无法与之媲美。生产水泥是盘大生意:全球水泥制造商每年赚取的利润高达2500亿美元。中国水泥市场占全球需求量和产量的一半，主要由本地厂商供货。而在中国之外，六大国际水泥公司（Buzzi, Cemex, Heidelberg, Holcim, Italcementi and Lafarge）共占全球水泥市场的40%。但这个行业却很少能获得人们的关注。 Many in the industry are happy to keep it that way. The firms that make this most basic type of glue, whose recipe has hardly changed in hundreds of years, are reticent. Cement remains a polluting and energy-hogging business, for all its attempts to clean up a bit. Investors, though, ought to take more of an interest. After a few hard years, with construction slumping in the rich countries, a recovery at last seems in sight. Demand is perking up just as the big cement-makers have all but dealt with the damage to their balance-sheets inflicted by the acquisition spree that made them into global giants. 业内许多公司则很乐意维持这种状况。生产水泥的公司都很低调。水泥是一种最基本的粘合剂，其配方几百年来几乎不曾改变。尽管业内试图让水泥环保一点，但水泥生产依然是有污染、高能耗的行业。话虽如此，投资者却应更加关注这个行业。过去几年，发达国家建筑业衰退，水泥行业处境艰难，如今似乎终于复苏在望了。一场疯狂收购使各大水泥制造商摇身变为全球水泥巨头。当这些巨头处理好因收购而不敷出的资产负债表时，市场对水泥的需求正在增长。 The structure of the industry also makes cement firms shy of attention. Cement is bulky and cheap. It makes sense to produce it in vast plants close both to limestone quarries, which provide a vital raw material, and to customers. Cement is so costly to transport that it rarely travels more than 200 miles (320km) by road, so its markets tend to be local. Barriers to entry are high: a new cement works producing 1m tonnes a year, the smallest worth building, costs around $200m. It is much cheaper for an incumbent to expand. All this means the industry tends towards oligopolies, which periodically attract interest from regulators. 水泥行业缺乏关注，行业本身的结构也是原因之一。水泥体积庞大而又价格低廉，在既靠近提供重要原料的石灰石矿场又靠近客户的大型工厂生产水泥是明智的选择。运输水泥的成本太高，其公路运输距离几乎不超过200英里（320公里），所以水泥的市场往往在本地。行业的准入门槛也很高：一个新水泥厂每年生产100万吨水泥，而厂房至少花费约20亿美元。现有的公司要扩大规模则容易得多。这一切都说明水泥行业容易出现寡头垄断，所以不时会得到监管部门的青睐。 A slender seaborne market provides a bit of competition. But only around 3% of global production is traded across borders. Countries with excess capacity and coastal cement works (built mainly to supply home markets by boat) can dump their spare output in nearby coastal states, capping prices there. Prices will tend to be higher, and profits fatter, in places far from big exporters such as China, Japan and Turkey, and in landlocked countries. 规模较小的海运水泥市场可能会有一些竞争。不过用于进出口的水泥只占全球产量的约3%。产能过剩而沿海地区又有水泥厂（主要用于通过海运为本土市场供货）的国家可以将多余的水泥倾销至邻近沿海国家，这样可以限制该国的水泥价格。在远离中国、日本、土耳其这些水泥出口大国及内陆国家的地区，水泥价格往往更高，利润也更丰厚。 Though the cement trade may not be global, consumption follows the same path as other more widely traded commodities that have a close correlation with economic expansion. In recent years demand in emerging economies has risen sharply, as they urbanise and industrialise: they now consume 90% of the world’s cement output, and this share is likely to keep growing. In rich countries fewer buildings and bridges are going up, so demand for cement is in long-term decline. 尽管水泥贸易可能不是全球性的，但其消费量却与其它贸易范围更广、与经济扩张关系密切的商品相同。近年来，新兴经济体的城市化和工业化促使其水泥需求快速增长：现在它们消费的水泥占全球总产量的90%，而且这个份额似乎仍在增长。反观发达国家，其兴建的楼房和桥梁数量不如以前，所以对水泥的需求将长期下跌。 For two decades the world’s biggest cement-makers, facing declining growth rates in their home markets, have been buying firms in developing countries. Holcim, based in Switzerland, now rakes in around 70% of profits from the developing world; Lafarge, of France, is not far behind. But in the rush to buy the best firms in the most attractive locations the cement giants overpaid, leaving a “trail of value destruction”, according to Phil Roseberg of Sanford C. Bernstein, a research firm. Because cement-making is such a local business, scale brings few cost advantages for global companies over domestic ones. 在过去20年里，尽管面临着增长率在各自国内市场不断下降的状况，世界最大的水泥制造商们仍不断收购发展中国家的公司。总部位于瑞士的Holcim如今所赚取的利润有70%来自发展中国家；法国的Lafarge也紧随其后。但是，据调查公司Phil Roseberg of Sanford C. Bernstein称，在这场针对位于最热门地区、最优秀的公司的收购热中，各大水泥巨头却出价过高，造成“一连串价值破坏”的局面。因为水泥制造业是一个本土行业，相对于本土公司，规模庞大的跨国公司几乎没有成本优势。 Since the financial crisis the big cement firms have suffered plunging sales in rich countries. In the emerging markets they have entered, the surge of new capacity they built has sent prices sliding. And energy bills, a big slice of costs, have risen everywhere. Yet HSBC, a bank, reckons the foundations have been laid for a recovery. Most big firms have cleaned up their balance-sheets and cut costs. Demand is still growing in Asia. American house building is perking up, even if Europe languishes in recession. A fall in coal prices, caused by a glut of gas, is cutting energy bills, whereas still-high oil prices discourage firms from trucking in cement over long distances, preserving local oligopolies. 自金融危机以来，各大水泥公司的销量在发达国家惨遭滑铁卢。在它们所打入的新兴市场中，新产能的激增导致了价格下滑。而不论在哪个地区，能源费用这一在成本中占大头的项目都有所上升。但汇丰银行却认为水泥行业的复苏已具备基础。大部分大型水泥公司都已处理好自己资产负债表的窘况，并降低了成本。亚洲的需求仍在增长。美国的房屋建筑量正在上升，尽管欧洲的仍因经济衰退而萎靡不振。天然气供过于求造成的煤价下跌使能源费用有所下降；不过，水泥公司碍于依旧高企的油价难以长途运输水泥，各地水泥市场仍是本地厂商垄断的局面。 The brighter outlook may not last, though. Some emerging economies may be near the end of their cement-hungry phase of rapid construction growth. According to Bernstein, demand for cement in Turkey and Malaysia and even parts of China may peak in the next five years. If so, the expected recovery in cement prices and profitability may not prove as durable as the material itself. 只是，前景可能不会一直这么乐观。一些新兴经济体中建筑业快速发展造成的水泥需求期可能已接近尾声。据Bernstein称，土耳其、马来西亚甚至中国部分地区的水泥需求可能在未来5年中达到顶峰。这样的话，之前预测的水泥价格及利润的复苏就可能不会像水泥本身那么持久稳固了。
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