本文已发布于Economic Oil on Canvas, 请移步文库讨论，谢谢！ https://bbs.pinggu.org/thread-3595025-1-1.html 凑个《穹顶之下》的热闹，写一篇关于北京车辆限行对空气污染和经济活动的研究。这项研究从09年就开始了，但多年以后才发出来，作者本人都说“十年磨一剑”。个人认为，这篇文章从微观层面验证了短期内减轻污染和增加经济活动（labor supply）之间的确存在trade-off，但cost-benefit ananlysis显示收益大于成本，主要是因为reduced pollution提高了人们的健康水平。但治理污染会损害经济增长吗？我认为理论上这需要一个structual model的提出，实证上需要长期的跨国宏观数据。柴静在《穹顶之下》里面提到，英国大烟雾事件后，治理污染的同时并没有出现经济危机，GDP反而番了四倍，就业人数也增长了。但经济学家还可以用structual model给出counterfactual（不治理环境会怎么样），对我来说这会更有说服力。 This paper identified the causal effects of Beijing’sOdd-Even and One-Day-Per-Week driving restrictions on reduced pollution(particular matters) and reducedeconomic activities (labor supply). To see the effect on aggregate pollution, they used anRDdesigntoexploit both time-series and spatial variation. Their point estimates indicate that the every-other-day restrictions reduced particulate matter by 18% and one-day-a-week restrictions by 21%. Measuring the effect on labor supply, they divided workers into two categories:self-employed and hourly workers. The proxy for working time is TV viewership,which biases the effectbecause the reduced auto congestion and pollution may make outdoor activities more attractive relative to indoor TV viewership. Therefore, they considered viewership duringrestricted hours and outside hours separately. For self-employed workers, v iewership increases by 8.9 to 16.9% during the restricted hours of the one-day-a-week policywhile viewershipchanges little outside therestricted hoursruling out the possibility that longer daily working hoursoffset fewer working days. Since hourly worker cannot adjusttheirschedule flexibly, their viewership during therestricted hours should beunaffected. Butthere is adecrease intheir viewership due to fewer at-home sick days resulting from reduced pollution. Changes outsiderestricted hours are minor, too. The high compliance of workers suggests the driving restrictions’ success. Butlessons from other countries showed that the effectsmay be compensated by buying morecarstothrow offthe shackles. Atthe end of the paper, it's emphasized that the effects areshort-run. On the long run, as income in Chinaincreases, the compensatingresponse is likely.
标签: 空气污染经管大学堂：名校名师名课
京公网安备 11010802022788号
论坛法律顾问：王进律师
知识产权保护声明
免责及隐私声明
