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The Squam Lake Report: Fixing the Financial System attachment 金融学(理论版) 99rabbit 2010-9-4 7 5068 onrush 2018-10-17 10:05:06
[分享]FRM09新教材Managing Credit Risk The Great Challenge for the Global Financial Ma attachment CFA、CVA、FRM等金融考证论坛 mclarenshen 2009-3-15 43 10359 热水壶湖水热 2017-7-19 21:51:42
[下载]The Bible of SAS SQL (PDF) attachment 数据分析与数据科学 simonguo213 2009-7-21 21 6859 yunnandlg 2015-12-20 18:11:52
The Definitive Guide To Jython Python For The Java™ Platform attach_img python论坛 Toyotomi 2013-3-31 2 4569 Itachix 2014-11-9 05:58:28
SANJAYA LALL 2000年英文文献 attachment 世界经济与国际贸易 lixiaoyu1017 2009-5-12 9 8394 wwqqer 2014-4-4 21:01:39
eBusiness & eCommerce Managing the Digital Value Chain attach_img 管理信息系统 Toyotomi 2013-4-27 5 4450 woaiwojia9 2013-12-17 12:08:47
The RFID Roadmap: The Next Steps for Europe attach_img 管理信息系统 Toyotomi 2013-4-28 1 2971 olderp 2013-9-20 10:57:24
Ways Out of the Working Capital Trap Empowering Self-Financing Growth Through Mo attach_img 运营管理(物流与供应链管理) Toyotomi 2013-5-12 2 3909 olderp 2013-9-19 09:04:53
Modelling Value Selected Papers of the 1st International Conference on Value Cha attach_img 运营管理(物流与供应链管理) Toyotomi 2013-4-22 8 5890 olderp 2013-8-18 17:15:49
Enabling Semantic Web Services The Web Service Modeling Ontology attach_img 管理信息系统 Toyotomi 2013-5-15 1 3120 听海123 2013-5-22 21:57:26
Globalization 2.0 A Roadmap to the Future from Leading Minds attach_img 运营管理(物流与供应链管理) Toyotomi 2013-5-17 1 3483 听海123 2013-5-22 21:56:58
[下载]Nicolas Sparks的The Notebook,英文版 attachment spark高速集群计算平台 大号维尼熊 2007-8-15 2 5525 aseya 2013-5-20 10:50:01
The Legacy of the Baby Boomers or the French Social System? Issues of Equality a attach_img 人力资源管理 Toyotomi 2013-4-26 0 3037 Toyotomi 2013-4-26 10:20:55
[下载]The Profit Zone attachment 商学院 MEI眼泪 2007-3-20 14 7779 lotuseaters 2013-4-23 08:58:43
保罗克鲁格曼最新著作(2007,10)The Conscience of a Liberal 发展经济学 高玉伟 2008-6-13 6 7620 labbrooke 2010-6-12 12:16:54
[下载]免費 The Real Option Solution attachment 金融学(理论版) martinnyj 2009-6-9 4 3638 fin9845cl 2009-6-10 06:37:00
[下载]The Origin of Financial Crisis attachment 金融学(理论版) martinnyj 2009-4-26 1 4628 yjk1998 2009-4-26 20:20:00
[制高点.-.世界经济之战].Commanding.Heights.The.Battle.for.the.World.Economy.Subs.and.Tran attachment 金融学(理论版) 3052042018 2008-9-9 0 6080 3052042018 2008-9-9 10:19:00
The uses of adversity 宏观经济学 chenzhishui 2006-8-23 0 3087 chenzhishui 2006-8-23 18:16:00

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分享 the purpose of all trade strategies
LloydGuo 2015-2-25 15:57
The purpose of all trade strategies is to identify conditions with a high probability outcome and acceptable capital exposure. quote from "High Probability Trade"
103 次阅读|0 个评论
分享 The Dynamic Break Out Strategya II
老渔夫 2014-4-20 11:16
策略简述: 开多:昨收高于布林上轨且最高价大于等于X(X由自适应模块决定)周期最大的最高价。 开空: 昨收低于布林下轨且最高价小于等于X(X由自适应模块决定)周期最小的最低价。 平多平空:X(X由自适应模块决定)周期的收盘价移动平均。 策略详述: 动态突破策略由George Pruitt 首次发表在1966年期货杂志上,之后被广泛地使用在各类市场上,取得了非常傲人的成绩。现今,在原系统上加入一个自适应参数调整模块,形成了新的动态突破II系统。 动态突破II最值得称道的地方就在于它能根据市场情况自动调节参数,它的基础是唐奇安通道. 那么,如何设计出自适应参数调节功能模块呢? 在动态突破II中,采用市场波动率作为评判标准。这种想法还是源自经典的唐奇安通道。若基于唐奇安通道做优化的话,会发现同一个市场不同时期最优值是不同的。大的波动率常常代表市场方向不明朗,我通过增大回溯值,让策略更难触发交易;小的波动率常代表趋势市场,通过减少回溯值,让系统更容易交易。这样这样可以使系统锁定长期趋势利润而又能在趋势发生改变时及时出场。当然利用市场波动率作为参数调节并不是唯一选择,完全可以选用其它效果类似的指标来自动调节参数,从而来决定出场点。 需注意的是,自适应参数的调节区间是有范围的。在这个例子中,动态突破II的回溯值在20—60之间,参数也设在这个范围内。 对于进场点,动态突破II一开始用过去20天来计算买卖界限,第一次买点就是过去20天最大的最高价,第一次卖点就是20天的最小值。每天结束后用30天收盘价的标准差作为市场波动率(也可以其他指标来估计波动率,如平均波动幅度,真实波动幅度,收盘价变化的标准差等等。确定当天的市场波动率后,按数值与前一日做比较,按波动的幅度来确定回溯值,如果波动率增长了10%,那么相应的回溯值也增大10%。 除此以外,还将采用一个自适应布林带 ——其作为一个“确认”技术指标。 至于出场点,该策略使用X周期收盘价移动平均值,当然也是由回溯值决定。 代码: //策略:动态突破II //类型:中长期 //DESIGNED BY ROGARZ //中间变量 INPUT:SS(1,1,100,1),M(26,5,300,30),N(2,0.1,10,1);// 定义参数 VARIABLE:回溯值:=20;//定义全局变量 MID := MA(CLOSE,M);//布林中轨 UPPER: MID + N*STD(CLOSE,M);//布林上轨 LOWER: MID - N*STD(CLOSE,M);//布林下轨 手数:=ss; //自适应模块 市场波动率:=STD(CLOSE,30); 昨日市场波动率:=STD(REF(CLOSE,1),30); 波动率的变化率:=(市场波动率-昨日市场波动率)/市场波动率; 回溯值:=(1+波动率的变化率)*回溯值;//LOOKBACKDAYS 回溯值:=ROUND(回溯值);//取整 回溯值:=MIN(回溯值,60);//确认回溯值不大于60 回溯值:=MAX(回溯值,20);//确认回溯值不小于20 X周期最高价:REF(HHV(H,回溯值),1); X周期最低价:REF(LLV(L,回溯值),1); X周期收盘移动平均:MA(CLOSE,回溯值); //交易条件 开多条件:=CLOSEX周期最高价 AND CLOSEUPPER; 开空条件:=CLOSEX周期最低价 AND CLOSELOWER; 平多条件:=CLOSEX周期收盘移动平均; 平空条件:=CLOSEX周期收盘移动平均; //交易系统 平多:sell(平多条件 and holding0,手数,market); 平空:sellshort(平空条件 and holding0,手数,market); 开多:buy(开多条件 and holding=0,手数,market); 开空:buyshort(开空条件 and holding=0,手数,market); //其他 资金:asset,noaxis,colorred; 持仓:holding,linethick0; // Reference: Building Winning Trading Systems with TradeStation Inputs: ceilingAmt(60),floorAmt(20),bolBandTrig(2.00); Vars: lookBackDays(20),todayVolatility(0),yesterDayVolatility(0),deltaVolatility(0); Vars: buyPoint(0),sellPoint(0),longLiqPoint(0),shortLiqPoint(0),upBand(0),dnBand(0); todayVolatility = StdDev(Close,30); yesterDayVolatility = StdDev(Close ,30); deltaVolatility = (todayVolatility - yesterDayVolatility)/todayVolatility; lookBackDays = lookBackDays * (1 + deltaVolatility); lookBackDays = Round(lookBackDays,0); lookBackDays = Min(lookBackDays,ceilingAmt); lookBackDays = Max(lookBackDays,floorAmt); upBand = BollingerBand(Close,lookBackDays,+bolBandTrig); dnBand = BollingerBand(Close,lookBackDays,-bolBandTrig); buyPoint = Highest(High,lookBackDays); sellPoint = Lowest(Low,lookBackDays); longLiqPoint = Average(Close,lookBackDays); shortLiqPoint = Average(Close,lookBackDays); if(Close upBand) then Buy("DBS-2 Buy") next bar at buyPoint stop; if(Close dnBand) then Sell("DBS-2 Sell") next bar at sellPoint stop; if(MarketPosition = 1) then ExitLong("LongLiq") next bar at longLiqPoint stop; if(MarketPosition = -1) then ExitShort("ShortLiq") next bar at shortLiqPoint stop; 经典的Bollinger系统留下两个问题,一个是时间窗需要多长,一个是带宽需要多宽。自适应布林线解决了上述2个问题。它的唯一的直接参数就是LBD(LookBackDays),且随着市场的变化而变化。 {自适应布林带 DZH} VARIABLE:CLA=60,FLA=20,BBT=2; VARIABLE:LBD=20; IF BARPOS=60 THEN BEGIN TV:=STD(Close,30); YV:=STD(REF(close,1),30); deltaV:=(TV-YV)/TV; LBD:=LBD*(1+deltaV); LBD:=INTPART(LBD); LBD:=Min(LBD,CLA); LBD:=max(LBD,FLA); MID:MA(CLOSE,LBD); UP:MID + BBT*STD(CLOSE,LBD); DN:MID - BBT*STD(CLOSE,LBD); end; STICKLINE(CO,H,C,0,1),COLORRED; STICKLINE(CO,L,O,0,1),COLORRED; STICKLINE(CO,O,C,8,1),COLORRED; STICKLINE(CO,H,O,0,0),COLORCYAN; STICKLINE(CO,L,C,0,0),COLORCYAN; STICKLINE(CO,O,C,8,0),COLORCYAN; STICKLINE(C=O,H,C,0,1),COLORWHITE; STICKLINE(C=O,L,O,0,1),COLORWHITE; STICKLINE(C=O,O,C,8,1),COLORWHITE;
个人分类: 成熟的程序交易系统|142 次阅读|0 个评论
分享 As the Blues netminder slid backwards in his creas
4zeeonly 2013-12-4 08:50
As the Blues netminder slid backwards in his crease, the puckJustice John Paul Stevens suggested setting a rule that prisoners do not have to talk to police, and if they do they are waiving their Miranda rights.Each was more than 12 feet long and contained more than 50 eggs.The plant was first grown in the botanic gardens of Spain near the end of the 18th century.Across downtown Caracas, shops and restaurants begin closing and Venezuelans hustled for home, some even breaking into a run.take snaps as Brandon Hill started and Kellen Pagel came in to throw a pair ofThis is just an Icarus-type folly: it got burned, but not too damagingly."When I saw your article," McLoughlin told 9NEWS in a Skype interview, "it echoes completely what he's done here. Until that time, French President Francois Hol , employers should be extremely careful not to adopt overly broad social media restrictions, 9 quake that hit Sichuan province, just north of Y , Ryan says."I've been to four Olympic Games since I retired," he said." And he's looking at the high-profile security forum here to help him reach his goal of ensuring that all nuclear materials worldwide are secured from theft or diversion within four years.for 56 yards and a score for the Sooners, who have now won 21 consecutiveSteve Williams accepted an award at a tongue-in-cheek caddie dinner for hisThe centerpiece provision of the legislation allows an estimated 11 million people living in the U.The Oilers outshot Colorado 23-12 in the first period and Nikolai Khabibulin came in to start the second in the Edmonton net. the starting placekicker on opening day once again, the venus factor book , however nothing isPhillips.To learn more about Allison and her work, you can go to her website stinkbugproject."It wasn't a goal.stocks closed at a record highs Tuesday after reports on auto sales and factory orders provided the latest evidence that the U.TEXAS TECH: No."We've always seen glimpses, and he just kept going out and repeating," BostonTo commemorate the hasty Exodus, Jews eat matzo, or flat wheat crackers that symbolize unleavened bread, and refrain from foods containing leavening such pasta during Passover.Officials inspected the road Tuesday to make sure it is ready to replace the current one across the top of the dam."There were five dams in a row, and they were cascading down, and they got a lot more water than they could handle. We teach each other.Other cities with higher profiles know this inner-city plague.6 million that Equilar calculated is the median value, , or the midpoint, of the companies used in the AP analysis.After a TV appearance with select voters in early February, Miquet-Marty noted, Sarkozy "lost four points in popularity., said it was up to the administration to present members with the necessary information.Robinson has not had contact with Ebel since then."Lisa, call me.It is still too early to know for sure.The company, which previously hadn't sold the McRib nationally since 1994, declined to give specific sales numbers.For them it is not a matter of extending the right, nor the teleological good, of marriage to gay people, but rather of redefining the very thing in which marriage consists.
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分享 The Food Safety and Inspection Service would conti
4zeeonly 2013-12-4 06:20
Red Cross shelters FORT COLLINS : Timberline Church, 2908 S.The unit began catching more suspects like Barrett last summer when it started using peer-to-peer file-sharing networks that work like Napster.So I head back to the bedroom, where I see the invitation I was wondering about.On the beach is one thing, but not here on the boardwalk.They used to gossip, say they were smugglers or drug dealers.Recently, It is the kind of quiet you cannot find in a city - until Frankli , the outpouring of support to keep the school open has been widespread.and 83 stolen bases.In February, the office rolled out the Disaster Movies: Lessons Learned campaign, in which it pointed out how characters in movies like Contagion, Twister and The Day After Tomorrow might have fared better if they had been prepared for disaster. The Food Safety and Inspection Service would continue all safety-related activities.But the CDC says this year's is a good match to the types that are circulating, including a new kind of the tough H3N2 strain.As anti-theft technology improves, car thefts are dropping each year.Multiple studies have shown that one of the best ways to stop smoking is to continue to try and try again until you're actually successful., NATO warplanes struck the convoy, a hit that stopped it from escaping, according to French Defense Minister Gerard Longuet."We want to look at those two characteristics and see if anybody has information they could provide.Michele Bachmann to consider ending her campaign to allow a conservative to emerge. Suite 102 Greeley CO 80634 970.Meanwhile, in fiscal 2011, the Labor Department recovered $225 million in back wages for employees, the venus factor pdf , up 28 percentfrom fiscal 2010.Vikings coach Leslie Frazier, speaking before news of the child's death, said Friday that it would be up to Peterson whether he plays this week.In Oklahoma City, authorities searched a muddy, swollen lake for a 17-year-old caught in a current Wednesday when he and other members of his high school cross-country team tried to swim across a flooded trail.Binge drinking is a symbolic proxy for higher social status in college and is correspondingly related to greater social satisfaction, writes Carolyn Hsu, lead author on the study and chair of Sociology and Anthropology at Colgate University. " In Tripoli, He was the kind of guy that his smile lit up the w , joy over Gadhafi's end spilled into a second day as thousands converged on central Martyrs' Square for Friday prayers and celebrations.As long as itNew York City's countdown was the first in decades without television host Dick Clark, who died in April.and 17 scores.Exercising, I never thought I'd see him ride a bicycle, and he's keeping his muscle up."At the funeral, we released some balloons.5500The outcry, Donovan Nichols, Jefferson, 5 , though, "is symptomatic of a bigger issue," said Geoff Freeman, executive vice president of the U.act like Peyton Manning.Investigators say a single mom lived here with her four daughters.The survey found that 47 percent of soldiers and 38 percent of Marines agreed that noncombatants should be treated with dignity and respect.
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分享 Both Gilmore and Blair were appointed as judges wi
4zeeonly 2013-12-4 05:24
It has been two years since Sampson took his last pill, and his allergies are controlled by acupuncture treatments once every eight weeks. His heart disease is managed well with conventional veterinary medicine.He couldn't get up and down for par and dipped back to nine-under par."That was my worst shot of the week I would say," acknowledged Toms.It listed 47 from Saudi Arabia, 24 Libyans, 10 Tunisians, nine Egyptians, six Qataris and five Lebanese.International journalists who visit rebel-held areas say foreign fighters are taking part in the battles against Assad's forces.Under TSA rules, those who decline must submit to rigorous pat-down inspections that include checks of the inside of travelers' thighs and buttocks. The American Civil Liberties Union has denounced the machines as a "virtual strip search. Both Gilmore and Blair were appointed as judges within two years of Masters' conviction.It was the first time in at least 30 years that a sitting judge has been rebuked for conduct stemming from their days as a lawyer.While he had always been an intellectual rebel, he had always obeyed and respected authority," he wrote.(Copyright 2010 by The Associated Press.The filing also stated that the couple had a prenuptial agreement.Longoria asked the court to require each side pay its own attorneys' fees, and rule that she should not have to pay spousal support to Parker.At the end of the pilot program, Goberis says it will be evaluated. She hopes that it can continue next year with an expanded availability for more students. "But such moves by the Fed seem to have relatively little effect.On Friday, the U.07; 7, Greeley Central, 50.20; 8, Mitchell, 50.For those seeking a bit of land at sea, the top aft deck of the Celebrity Solstice boasts a half-acre lawn (with real grass), a putting green, and bocce ball. A patio cafe and bar provides snacks, while the adjacent hot glass-blowing studio showcases performances from the Corning Museum of Glass.She says seniors, children, people with disabilities and veterans will be among the groups hardest hit by the cuts because they are the groups most reliant on food stamps.The saving grace, she says, is that the holiday season is approaching in November and December, the time of year when most food banks receive more than half of their donations during the year. Kansas (9-0): The time has finally come. I will chronicle freshman JoshJanuary job growth was revised higher by 41,000 to 284,000. December job growth was raised by 20,000 to 223,000.When the fiscal year ends at midnight Monday. Most federal workers would report to work Tuesday, but unless they're deemed "essential," they would work no more than four hours on shutdown-related activities before being furloughed.In New York City's Greenwich Village, the Stonewall Inn, where a riot in 1969 sparked the gay rights movement, erupted in cheers and whooping. Mary Jo Kennedy, 58 was there with her wife Jo-Ann Shain, 60, and their daughter Aliya Shain, 25.That is until Saturday afternoon, the venus factor download , when Derek Sanderson Jeter became the first Yankee to reach the plateau, smoking a third-inning homer to left field off
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分享 Lost in the Geometry of California’s Farms
detouroffce 2013-5-5 14:21
Lost in the Geometry of California’s Farms By VERLYN KLINKENBORG Published: May 4, 2013 I drove down the San Joaquin Valley along Interstate 5 the other day. It was a tour of the less populous California, a route that — to borrow a 50-year-old phrase from Joan Didion — is also “the trail of an intention gone haywire.” You can pick up that trail almost anywhere in the state, if only because the history of California is a story of feverish intention, a tale of almost manic possibility and reinvention. The state has been arguing with itself since the days when it was just a territory — arguing over possibilities that have come and gone, too often leaving a layer of sediment from which the dust now rises, obscuring the future. Like anyone who has lived here for long, I have my own tales of how the state used to be. I can talk about the fields of hops that used to stretch away endlessly across the American River from my high school in Sacramento, where, 40 years ago, there suddenly sprang up endless suburbs. Californians tend to tell these stories, I think, not out of nostalgia but to marvel, as we always do, at the rate of change. My own sense of change is measured against the first trip I ever made down the San Joaquin Valley. It was with my parents in the summer of 1966. We were scouting where we might settle after we left Iowa, and the valley looked like nothing we’d ever seen, a place where farming looked totally unfamiliar, except for the spots where cattle grazed or hay was being made. The valley was immense then, just as it is now. What has changed, more than anything, is the immensity of its agriculture. It was a windless day, this past week, when I drove southward, and a dome of high pressure seemed to trap everything beneath it. The mountains in the distance had vanished in the haze, and it struck me that the legendary smog of Los Angeles had migrated northward. It looked as if the purpose of all that agriculture — those endless rigid, rectified miles of trees and vines and seed rows, the acres and acres of beef and dairy cattle standing under shade-roofs — was simply to feed the sky. Every tractor, vastly too small a word for the machines in the distance, was raising a dust storm all its own, and there were hundreds of them, up and down the valley. But this was only the dust you could see. There was mingled with it the fetor that rises and spreads from the feedlots and dairies, a stench that shimmers over the valley like a heat mirage. It’s easy to let yourself be overwhelmed by the agricultural geometry of the valley, all those rows seeming to rush past as you drive. But to understand its true immensity and capacity for transformation, you have to drop down off the interstate and onto the valley floor. There is something stunning in the way the soil has been engineered into precision. Every human imperfection linked with the word “farming” has been erased. The rows are machined. The earth is molded. The angles are more rigid, and more accurate, than the platted but unbuilt streets out where easy credit dried up during the housing crisis. This is no longer soil. It is infrastructure, like the vast concrete sluice of the California Aqueduct, like the convoluted arrays of piping that spring up everywhere at the corners of fields. The vast regiments of nut and fruit trees, casting sparse shade on bare earth, seem to defy the word “orchard.” I realized that I didn’t know what to call them, except where they had climbed the hills west of the freeway, up and out of the irrigated zone. There they had become firewood. It is hard to know what you’re seeing. You notice the plant matter — the bright green of grape leaves, the stout, grafted trunks of the oldest nut trees, the saplings that look impossibly frail under the blunt sun. But what you cannot see is this: The entire valley has sunk in on itself over the years as the aquifer beneath it has been siphoned off. You can’t miss the massive California Aqueduct alongside the freeway, which draws water from the Sacramento River delta. One of its purposes, aside from watering Los Angeles, is to keep the owners of these vast acreages from pumping still more water out of the ground and sinking the valley further. Even in wet years there is never enough surface water to satisfy the valley. AS it is, the United States Geological Survey calls the subsiding of the San Joaquin Valley “the largest human alteration of the Earth’s surface.” A kind of landscape that once seemed barely imaginable now seems inevitable and necessary: that’s the logic and the illusion in so much of California, urban and rural. I can’t help marveling and despairing at the transformation, the way agriculture, here and elsewhere, has created a landscape that is fundamentally inhuman, devoid of people. Every scenario for the future of the valley must begin with what is now a biological desert, a place where only a handful of species are allowed to thrive, a place utterly alien to all but a few machine operators wearing hazmat-like suits. Meet The New York Times’s Editorial Board » A version of this editorial appeared in print on May 5, 2013, on page SR 10 of the New York edition with the headline: Lost in the Geometry Of California’s Farms.
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分享 IMF videos_ Per Jacobsson Lecture_October 14, 2012
aliehs 2012-11-23 20:20
Yi Gang's Speach at IMF Per Jacobsson Lecture Yi Gang: Deputy Governor, People's Bank of China, on behalf of Zhou Xiaochuan, Governor of the People's Bank of China I'm going to deliver Mr Zhou Xiaochuan's paper - China's Monetary Policy Since 2000. The Chinese economy challenges are the followings: 1st Chinese economy stage is as a developing country. Also we're facing theinflationarypressure. The driving forces areurbanizationand industrialization. So you can see many things are going on at the same time. Also we have reforms: banking reforms, exchange rate regime liberalization. 4th China isopeningup. China joint the WTO 2000. We face a lot of challenges like the legal perspective, etc. Also we not only need to consider domestic issues but alsoextraissues. More than 30 years ago, we were still a closed economy, we rarely consider the rest of the world. But now it's acompletelydifferent picture. And you see in this process, we accumulated a lot of foreign reserves. Also another challenge,becausethe liquidity is plenty, and also China is in a process of changing to market economy, which is ruled by law, and property right is protected. So in this process, because the transition, and protection ofpropertyright, the housing prices went up quite dramatically. So you're facing a lot of challenge, we want to maintain growth, control inflation rate, etc. Theessenceof this paper is the how monetary policy can be applied to this very challenging condition. The 1st thing: control inflation is our No1 job. As central banker, we have to control the inflation.Everybodyis veryenthusiasticabout the economic growth. As central banker, we need to remind general public and central government the limitation of resources, capacity,environmentetc. Keep in mind that the first thing in our central banker's mind is control inflation. 2nd consideration: China is a developing country. Inflation targeting is the only objective. In China, we have a multi-objective task for central bank. 1) inflation; 2) growth; 3) jobs creation; 4) try to maintain internal external balance. we have to consider all of the four. In our mind, those four are not equally weighted. Inflation is heavily weighted but we also need to take care of others. 3rd consideration: financial stability and reform. How to carry out a sound monetary policy? We have to have a stable market. If you don't have, you need to establish a stable market first. Many people said that China should liberalize the interest rate. But our banking was in a very bad shape 15 years ago. In late 1990s, technically speaking, most national banks have been already bankrupt. At that situation, how could you conduct out the liberalization? In terms of the financial reform. Our principle is that China has to feed itself by its own agricultural production . Basically, China can feed itself. If you want the good foundation in agriculture, you need sound financial support. Rural credit cooperatives is very important. For them: money capital in exchange for sound financial reforms. For now, Chinese banks are very profitable, capital reserve ratio is high. If you look at the top 10 banks in the SS, the top 3/4 are from China. 4th consideration: central bank changes from direct intervention to market oriented monetary tool. Direct intervention means approval first and quota second. Gradually we built up monetary tools: open market operation, etc. 5th consideration: exchange rate reform. There are a lot of debate about China exchange rate regime in the past decade. We started to consider the exchange reform on 2002. When governor Zhou became the Governor of the central bank. Before we reform it, we have to have the banking reform, and we need to relax some foreign exchange control. If you say the demand and supply should determine the exchange rate, but where is the market at that time? you have to establish exchange rate market first. We established stock market, etc, those are the homework we need to do. Since 2005 up to now, RMB's flexibility has been increased, the nominal exchange rate has been appreciated 30%. A good news, in the past 4 quarters the central bank has little control on the exchange rate and the official reserves in the past 5 quarters has been flat. 6th consideration: how to ** the access to liquidity.There is one problem. In the process in conducting monetary policy, Chinese central bank bought a lot of US dollar, in order to buy those we actually injected RMB in the system. The other method is using the government bonds. Another instrument, we increased required reserve ratio. It's a very old instrument for most central bank. But in China, it's a very important way. We increase it to absorb the extra liquidity in the market. From 2003 to 2010, 36 times, including 32 increase and 4 decrease. 7th consideration: interest rate liberalization and how we use the spread of interest rate. Right now, central bank control over in interest rate is much less than most people thought. We control the ceiling of deposit rate and floor of lending rate. And all the market rates are liberalized, including money market rate, bond market rate, trust fund rate, etc. Money market fixed income rate inter banking rate are all liberalized. Shanghai Interbank Interest rate, SIBOR (the Chinese version of LIBOR). We think SIBOR is successful so far. We have a set of rules and methods to supervise the SIBOR to encourage banks to tell the truth. We compare the report SIBOR and market SIBOR and check the discrepancies. Also deposit and lending spread is very important to avoid credit crunch and over lending. We need to consider internal andexternalmarket. 8th consideration: how monetary policy respond to global market crisis. Those 8 points are main points in Governor Zhou's paper.
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