The purpose of all trade strategies is to identify conditions with a high probability outcome and acceptable capital exposure. quote from "High Probability Trade"
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Lost in the Geometry of California’s Farms By VERLYN KLINKENBORG Published: May 4, 2013 I drove down the San Joaquin Valley along Interstate 5 the other day. It was a tour of the less populous California, a route that — to borrow a 50-year-old phrase from Joan Didion — is also “the trail of an intention gone haywire.” You can pick up that trail almost anywhere in the state, if only because the history of California is a story of feverish intention, a tale of almost manic possibility and reinvention. The state has been arguing with itself since the days when it was just a territory — arguing over possibilities that have come and gone, too often leaving a layer of sediment from which the dust now rises, obscuring the future. Like anyone who has lived here for long, I have my own tales of how the state used to be. I can talk about the fields of hops that used to stretch away endlessly across the American River from my high school in Sacramento, where, 40 years ago, there suddenly sprang up endless suburbs. Californians tend to tell these stories, I think, not out of nostalgia but to marvel, as we always do, at the rate of change. My own sense of change is measured against the first trip I ever made down the San Joaquin Valley. It was with my parents in the summer of 1966. We were scouting where we might settle after we left Iowa, and the valley looked like nothing we’d ever seen, a place where farming looked totally unfamiliar, except for the spots where cattle grazed or hay was being made. The valley was immense then, just as it is now. What has changed, more than anything, is the immensity of its agriculture. It was a windless day, this past week, when I drove southward, and a dome of high pressure seemed to trap everything beneath it. The mountains in the distance had vanished in the haze, and it struck me that the legendary smog of Los Angeles had migrated northward. It looked as if the purpose of all that agriculture — those endless rigid, rectified miles of trees and vines and seed rows, the acres and acres of beef and dairy cattle standing under shade-roofs — was simply to feed the sky. Every tractor, vastly too small a word for the machines in the distance, was raising a dust storm all its own, and there were hundreds of them, up and down the valley. But this was only the dust you could see. There was mingled with it the fetor that rises and spreads from the feedlots and dairies, a stench that shimmers over the valley like a heat mirage. It’s easy to let yourself be overwhelmed by the agricultural geometry of the valley, all those rows seeming to rush past as you drive. But to understand its true immensity and capacity for transformation, you have to drop down off the interstate and onto the valley floor. There is something stunning in the way the soil has been engineered into precision. Every human imperfection linked with the word “farming” has been erased. The rows are machined. The earth is molded. The angles are more rigid, and more accurate, than the platted but unbuilt streets out where easy credit dried up during the housing crisis. This is no longer soil. It is infrastructure, like the vast concrete sluice of the California Aqueduct, like the convoluted arrays of piping that spring up everywhere at the corners of fields. The vast regiments of nut and fruit trees, casting sparse shade on bare earth, seem to defy the word “orchard.” I realized that I didn’t know what to call them, except where they had climbed the hills west of the freeway, up and out of the irrigated zone. There they had become firewood. It is hard to know what you’re seeing. You notice the plant matter — the bright green of grape leaves, the stout, grafted trunks of the oldest nut trees, the saplings that look impossibly frail under the blunt sun. But what you cannot see is this: The entire valley has sunk in on itself over the years as the aquifer beneath it has been siphoned off. You can’t miss the massive California Aqueduct alongside the freeway, which draws water from the Sacramento River delta. One of its purposes, aside from watering Los Angeles, is to keep the owners of these vast acreages from pumping still more water out of the ground and sinking the valley further. Even in wet years there is never enough surface water to satisfy the valley. AS it is, the United States Geological Survey calls the subsiding of the San Joaquin Valley “the largest human alteration of the Earth’s surface.” A kind of landscape that once seemed barely imaginable now seems inevitable and necessary: that’s the logic and the illusion in so much of California, urban and rural. I can’t help marveling and despairing at the transformation, the way agriculture, here and elsewhere, has created a landscape that is fundamentally inhuman, devoid of people. Every scenario for the future of the valley must begin with what is now a biological desert, a place where only a handful of species are allowed to thrive, a place utterly alien to all but a few machine operators wearing hazmat-like suits. Meet The New York Times’s Editorial Board » A version of this editorial appeared in print on May 5, 2013, on page SR 10 of the New York edition with the headline: Lost in the Geometry Of California’s Farms.
Yi Gang's Speach at IMF Per Jacobsson Lecture Yi Gang: Deputy Governor, People's Bank of China, on behalf of Zhou Xiaochuan, Governor of the People's Bank of China I'm going to deliver Mr Zhou Xiaochuan's paper - China's Monetary Policy Since 2000. The Chinese economy challenges are the followings: 1st Chinese economy stage is as a developing country. Also we're facing theinflationarypressure. The driving forces areurbanizationand industrialization. So you can see many things are going on at the same time. Also we have reforms: banking reforms, exchange rate regime liberalization. 4th China isopeningup. China joint the WTO 2000. We face a lot of challenges like the legal perspective, etc. Also we not only need to consider domestic issues but alsoextraissues. More than 30 years ago, we were still a closed economy, we rarely consider the rest of the world. But now it's acompletelydifferent picture. And you see in this process, we accumulated a lot of foreign reserves. Also another challenge,becausethe liquidity is plenty, and also China is in a process of changing to market economy, which is ruled by law, and property right is protected. So in this process, because the transition, and protection ofpropertyright, the housing prices went up quite dramatically. So you're facing a lot of challenge, we want to maintain growth, control inflation rate, etc. Theessenceof this paper is the how monetary policy can be applied to this very challenging condition. The 1st thing: control inflation is our No1 job. As central banker, we have to control the inflation.Everybodyis veryenthusiasticabout the economic growth. As central banker, we need to remind general public and central government the limitation of resources, capacity,environmentetc. Keep in mind that the first thing in our central banker's mind is control inflation. 2nd consideration: China is a developing country. Inflation targeting is the only objective. In China, we have a multi-objective task for central bank. 1) inflation; 2) growth; 3) jobs creation; 4) try to maintain internal external balance. we have to consider all of the four. In our mind, those four are not equally weighted. Inflation is heavily weighted but we also need to take care of others. 3rd consideration: financial stability and reform. How to carry out a sound monetary policy? We have to have a stable market. If you don't have, you need to establish a stable market first. Many people said that China should liberalize the interest rate. But our banking was in a very bad shape 15 years ago. In late 1990s, technically speaking, most national banks have been already bankrupt. At that situation, how could you conduct out the liberalization? In terms of the financial reform. Our principle is that China has to feed itself by its own agricultural production . Basically, China can feed itself. If you want the good foundation in agriculture, you need sound financial support. Rural credit cooperatives is very important. For them: money capital in exchange for sound financial reforms. For now, Chinese banks are very profitable, capital reserve ratio is high. If you look at the top 10 banks in the SS, the top 3/4 are from China. 4th consideration: central bank changes from direct intervention to market oriented monetary tool. Direct intervention means approval first and quota second. Gradually we built up monetary tools: open market operation, etc. 5th consideration: exchange rate reform. There are a lot of debate about China exchange rate regime in the past decade. We started to consider the exchange reform on 2002. When governor Zhou became the Governor of the central bank. Before we reform it, we have to have the banking reform, and we need to relax some foreign exchange control. If you say the demand and supply should determine the exchange rate, but where is the market at that time? you have to establish exchange rate market first. We established stock market, etc, those are the homework we need to do. Since 2005 up to now, RMB's flexibility has been increased, the nominal exchange rate has been appreciated 30%. A good news, in the past 4 quarters the central bank has little control on the exchange rate and the official reserves in the past 5 quarters has been flat. 6th consideration: how to ** the access to liquidity.There is one problem. In the process in conducting monetary policy, Chinese central bank bought a lot of US dollar, in order to buy those we actually injected RMB in the system. The other method is using the government bonds. Another instrument, we increased required reserve ratio. It's a very old instrument for most central bank. But in China, it's a very important way. We increase it to absorb the extra liquidity in the market. From 2003 to 2010, 36 times, including 32 increase and 4 decrease. 7th consideration: interest rate liberalization and how we use the spread of interest rate. Right now, central bank control over in interest rate is much less than most people thought. We control the ceiling of deposit rate and floor of lending rate. And all the market rates are liberalized, including money market rate, bond market rate, trust fund rate, etc. Money market fixed income rate inter banking rate are all liberalized. Shanghai Interbank Interest rate, SIBOR (the Chinese version of LIBOR). We think SIBOR is successful so far. We have a set of rules and methods to supervise the SIBOR to encourage banks to tell the truth. We compare the report SIBOR and market SIBOR and check the discrepancies. Also deposit and lending spread is very important to avoid credit crunch and over lending. We need to consider internal andexternalmarket. 8th consideration: how monetary policy respond to global market crisis. Those 8 points are main points in Governor Zhou's paper.