花旗对新兴市场的深度研究

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Citi-Global Emerging Markets Strategy.pdf (113.18 KB, 需要: 5 个论坛币)

2011-1-20 09:04:23 上传

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Global Emerging Markets Strategy
Annual, Quarterly & Monthly Recap – Strong End to Volatile Year  

  Taking Tally — MSCI GEMs rose by 16.4% in 2010, a typical Year 2 performance
after the 74.5% record return in 2009 (which itself followed the 2008 record decline
of 54.5%). The annual gain was in line with our forecast and, as expected, GEMs
outperformed AC World (+10.4%).  However, regional rankings surprised us:
EMEA outperformed (+20.9%), followed by Asia (+16.6%) and Latam (+12.1%).  
  All Consuming —  Traditional high-beta strategies would have returned only
average profits.  High-beta Energy, for example, was the second-worst performing
sector (+7.5%) after Utilities (+4.9%).  Meanwhile, investors flocked to domestic
stories in 2010; Consumer Discretionary and Staples led, rising by 29.5% and
27.6%, respectively.  Industrials (+27.1%) and Materials (+20.6%) also did well.
  Year of the Smalls — The six best performing markets (out of 21 EM countries in
total) we classify as ‘small’.  Thailand, Peru and Chile top the list with 40%+ gains.   
In contrast, the two largest EM markets, China (+2.3%) and Brazil (+3.8%) were
the third- and fourth-worst performers in GEMs.  Hungary (-10.7%), due to pension
policy missteps and proximity to the EU fiscal crisis, was the EM laggard.
  Yearend Rally — Modestly improving growth prospects due to QE2 and fiscal
expansion in the US, despite still poor labor market conditions, supported a
yearend rally in global equities.  AC World rose by 7.2% in December and closed
the year at its cycle high, while GEMs rose by 7.0% in December; it closed 2010
just 0.4% off the early-November cycle high.   
  Looking Ahead — We still expect dollar returns of 30-35% in emerging market
equities in 2011, underpinned by zero US rates, a weak dollar, premium EM
growth and strong fund flows.  Risks include aggressive Chinese rate hikes, a
strong rebound in the dollar, and increased contagion of the EU fiscal crisis.  We
expect EM equities to outperform both AC World and EM bonds again this year.  
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关键词：新兴市场 新兴市 respectively performance Traditional 研究 深度 花旗

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