NOMURA Global Economic - 4 February 2011

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NOMURA Global Economic - 4 February 2011.pdf (1.1 MB, 需要: 4 个论坛币)

2011-2-10 12:47:12 上传

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GLOBAL LETTER
Thinking about the Bank of Japan 5
There is some upside risk to the consensus view the BOJ is now in wait-and-see mode.
REGIONAL ROUNDUPS
United States
The recovery’s missing link 6
Real GDP has “recovered” its peak but construction has hindered rather than helped.
Europe
The distractions of plan B 8
We do not expect widespread haircuts to be the centerpiece of the debt crisis resolution.
Japan
Two risks that are linked 10
They are the deteriorating situation in the Middle East and North Africa and fiscal risks.
Asia
Long-lasting inflation 12
A strong inflation pulse is squeezing profit margins and fanning inflation expectations.
Emerging Markets
EEMEA central banks: Ready, set, go...stop 14
We take stock of the “postmodern” landscape since we released our 2011 outlook.
SPECIAL TOPICS
Europe
How vulnerable are euro-area households? 16
We do not foresee widespread defaults but some countries are vulnerable.
Spain
Spain’s New Year’s resolution 18
Spain has made some impressive headway on its ongoing structural reform agenda.

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