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雷达卡
9th March 2011
FEBRUARY MARKET REPORT
I. WORLD SUGAR MARKET
1. The market in February
In February world market values remained volatile.
On 2nd February the ISA daily price for raw sugar
was as high as 32.57 cents/lb, the highest daily
quotation for more than 30 years since 28th
November 1980. Then a downward correction
started, and by 23rd February the price fell to 27.55
cents/lb only; but two days later it recovered to
29.74 cents/lb. As a result, the monthly average
was 29.47 cents/lb as against 29.61 cents/lb in the
previous month.
The downward correction of white sugar prices was
even more severe. The ISO White Sugar Price
Index collapsed from a multi-year high at
USD832.40/tonne (37.76 cents/lb) on 2nd February
to USD690.65 (31.33 cents/lb) fixed on 23rd
February. Similar to raw sugar, white sugar prices
partly recovered during the last week of the month,
when the Index improved to USD730.85/tonne
(33.15 cents/lb). The monthly average was
USD746.21/tonne (33.85 cents/lb), down 5.1%
from January.
As a result of a sharper downward correction for
white sugar, the nominal white sugar premium (the
differential between the ISO White Sugar Price
Index and ISA daily price) further eased in February
to USD96.56/tonne as against the January average
of USD117.51/tonne and the December average of
USD130.73/tonne. In terms of monthly averages,
the current nominal premium is below the 36-
month average of about USD98/tonne.
Despite the recent short-lived downward correction,
world market values remain at a historically high
level just a couple of cents/lb below the recent 30
year high and are expected to remain volatile in the
mid-term. A “neutral” world balance (neatly
balanced world production and consumption as well
as export availability and import demand – see
discussion under Conditions and Prospects) in a low
stock environment is unlikely to pare back extreme
price volatility, at least before a more detailed
picture of Brazil’s new crop developments is
available in July.
In Brazil, the latest UNICA update on the Centre-
South 2010/11 harvest shows an accumulated cane
output of 556 mln tonnes by the end of January,
compared with 532 mln tonnes harvested in the
year-ago period. Sugar production, at 33.5 mln
tonnes, was 17.8% above last season’s, while
ethanol output, at 25.3 bln litres, was 9.1% higher
than in 2009/10. Although total cane output was
only 4.5% larger than the equivalent period in
2009/10, a much higher ATR at 141.22 kg/tonne of
cane has been achieved, compared to only 130.75
kg/tonne of cane in the previous season. Crucially,
during this Centre-South campaign the share of
cane allocated to sugar has increased to 44.73%
from 42.88% in 2009/10.
International Sugar Organization MECAS(i 11)03
o period.
In the North-Northeast region, which is responsible
for around 10% of Brazil’s total sugar production,
the 2010/11 cane crush is also nearing its closing
stages. Due to unfavourable weather conditions,
cane production by 1st February reached 49.58 mln
tonnes, down 2.26% on last year’s. Total
recoverable sugars (ATR) per tonne of cane are
also down 1.45% from 135.67 kg/tonne in
2009/10 to 133.70kg/tonne. As a result, both
sugar and ethanol production have fallen. Ethanol
output, at 1.597 bln litres, is down 6.15% on last
season’s, while sugar output, at 3.621 mln tonnes,
is 1.82% lower than the year-ag
Nominal white sugar premium (USD/Tonne)
Looking ahead, the Brazilian consultancy Datagro
forecasts a lower cane output in Brazil for 2011/12
compared to 2010/11. The consultancy sees cane
output in the Centre South decreasing from 557
mln tones to 550 mln tonnes, while cane
production in the North-Northeast region is set to
remain stable at around 61 mln tonnes.
Nevertheless, due to a rising share of cane
allocated to sugar, sugar production is set to rise
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