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瑞银-全球能源行业-绿色氢：从生产到泵-如何驾驭一个新兴的价值万亿美元的价值链-2021.pdf
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Low-carbon hydrogen is central to national net-zero targets globally, and the number of companies announcing hydrogen strategies has been growing. To put the potential into an APAC perspective, we think hydrogen could play a much larger role in the energy mix than the 12% occupied by natural gas today (up to 400mn tons APAC hydrogen demand in our most aggressive scenario). The utility of low-carbon (green and blue) hydrogen is broadly known to the market. However, we believe markets are still moving up the learning curve regarding: 1) bottom-up factors that will differentiate hydrogen’s development on a country-by-country and industry-by-industry basis; 2) specific factors that could underpin the fall we expect in low-carbon hydrogen production cost from 2020 to 2050; 3) hydrogen transport cost and what it means for the cost of hydrogen for the end-user; and 4) the economics of carbon intensity and how it may impact the adoption of hydrogen across key end-user segments. This Q-Series report builds on the foundations laid by UBS Q-Series reports on Blue Hydrogen (Shneur Gershuni) and Energy Transition, adding in UBS proprietary analysis and with a tilt toward case studies in APAC. This report includes input from 20+ UBS analysts globally
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