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| 研究机构：摩根大通(亚太) 分析师： Cindy ... 撰写日期：2011年04月11日 | 字体[ 大 中 小 ] |
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Industry news: 1) Market expects March RMB new loan increase to beabout Rmb600-650bn, slightly higher than Rmb536bn in Feb, suggestingtotal loan creation in 1Q11 may end up within 30% of the full year amountat Rmb7-7.5trn. ICBC, CCB, BOC and ABC reported total loan increases ofRmb242bn in March, 11% above Rmb218bn in Feb. 2) PBOC announcedanother 25bps interest rate hike for one year saving and loan rates to tameinflation, effective from April 6, which may result in flattish NIM in 2Q11before further expansion. 3) The issuance of wealth management product byChina banks surged significantly in March, which not only helped attractmore deposits but also raised banks’ fee incomes.
Company news: 1) Guang Dong Development Bank officially changed thename to “China Guangfa Bank” last week, as preparation for its transitionfrom a regional bank to national bank. The bank is looking for aboutRmb20bn A+H listing in 2H11 or 1H12. Underwriters will be selected thisweek. 2) Bank of Beijing (601169 CH) announced Rmb12bn privateplacement to Tai Kang Life, Citic Securities, State Development &Investment Corp etc. The transaction ruled out the possibility of H sharelisting in the near future.
Open market operation: Given the larger amount of bill maturity atRmb211bn, last week, PBOC OMO turned to liquidity injection ofRmb28bn on net basis although total bill and repo issuance stayed atRmb183bn. One-year PBOC bill issuance rate further increased by about11bps w/w to 3.31%, surpassing current one-year deposit rate of 3.25%.
Short-term SHIBOR rates continued declining, implying still ample moneysupply. Seven-day SHIBOR rate was down by 28bps w/w.
Share price performance: China banks overall were trading flat in H shareslast week, up 0.5%, but medium-sized banks took a turn to outperform thebig banks. Citic-H was the best performer with 2% w/w increase, followedby CMB at 1.2% w/w—the two banks are expected to benefit most frominterest rate hikes thanks to their higher L/D ratios, shorter loan repricingperiods and favorable deposit franchise. Meanwhile, banks in A sharemarket maintained the upward trend by continuously advancing 2.4% w/won average, led by CMB (+4.5% w/w) and Huaxia (+4.1% w/w).
Valuation: China banks’ valuations largely remained unchanged comparedwith the previous week at 1.8x 11E P/B and 8.7x 11E P/E in H share, vs.
1.5x 11E P/B and 7.3x 11E P/E in A share. H to A share premium slightlynarrowed to 14% on P/E basis and 15% on P/B basis. We believe currentvaluations still don’t reflect the potential earnings upside in the next fewyears. As inflation may peak in 2Q11 incrementally, there might be lesstightening measures, thus lifting sentiment further. Our top picks aremedium-sized banks, which are trading at more depressed valuations anddisplay more the PB/ROE mismatch, such as Citic-H and Minsheng-H. In Ashares,we like SPDB, Minsheng-A and CMB-A.
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