蒙特卡洛路径依赖

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蒙特卡洛为什么可以用来估值类似mortgage-backed securities的具有路径依赖特征的金融工具？
Consider a mortgage pool that was formed when rates were 6%, then interest rates dropped to 4%, rose to 6%, and then dropped again to 4%. Many homeowners will have refinance when interest rates dipped the first time. On the second occurrence of 4% interest rates, most homeowners in the pool who were able to refinance would have already taken advantage of the opportunity, leading to lower prepayments than would be observed had 4% interest rates not occurred previously.
这种的cash flow要怎么通过monte-carlo simulation来估值？

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关键词：路径依赖 蒙特卡洛 蒙特卡 Opportunity Monte-carlo