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摘要翻译：
本文考虑了条件转移概率上处理效应的识别问题。我们证明了即使在随机分配下，也只有瞬时平均处理效应是点识别的。由于治疗单位和对照单位的退出率不同，随机化只确保了随机化时治疗单位和对照单位的可比性，因此长期平均治疗效果不是点确定的。相反，我们推导出这些平均治疗效果的信息范围。我们的界限不强加（半）参数限制，例如，比例危险。我们还探讨了各种假设，如单调的治疗反应，共同的冲击和正相关的结果收紧了界限。
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英文标题：
《Bounds On Treatment Effects On Transitions》
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作者：
Johan Vikstr\"om, Geert Ridder, Martin Weidner
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最新提交年份：
2017
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分类信息：
一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：Econometrics 计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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英文摘要：
This paper considers the identification of treatment effects on conditional transition probabilities. We show that even under random assignment only the instantaneous average treatment effect is point identified. Since treated and control units drop out at different rates, randomization only ensures the comparability of treatment and controls at the time of randomization, so that long-run average treatment effects are not point identified. Instead we derive informative bounds on these average treatment effects. Our bounds do not impose (semi)parametric restrictions, for example, proportional hazards. We also explore various assumptions such as monotone treatment response, common shocks and positively correlated outcomes that tighten the bounds.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1709.08981
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