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摘要翻译：
根据“民主对发展的影响：问题多于答案”，我们试图按照“有待进一步研究的问题”的描述进行研究。为此目的，我们研究了撒哈拉以南非洲地区的33个国家，这些国家都经历了一次选举，这应该标志着其民主的“进步”，在这次选举中，以前同质的政权将权力移交给公平赢得选举的反对党。在这样做之后，自由民主指标和民主指标在选举之前和之后的五年中进行了评估，在这十年中，我们检查了趋势数据。如果我们在这个时间范围内看到积极或消极的趋势，我们可以得出结论，是最近民主质量的提高导致了这一点。在深入研究了这方面的例子后，似乎有三个主要的原型驱动了结果。选举对民主产生积极影响的国家通常对其发展产生积极影响，结果更“稳定”的国家也表现良好，但对那些因选举而继续向威权主义下降的国家来说，负面结果更多。
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英文标题：
《The Calculus of Democratization and Development》
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作者：
Jacob Ferguson
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最新提交年份：
2017
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分类信息：
一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：Econometrics 计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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英文摘要：
In accordance with "Democracy's Effect on Development: More Questions than Answers", we seek to carry out a study in following the description in the 'Questions for Further Study.' To that end, we studied 33 countries in the Sub-Saharan Africa region, who all went through an election which should signal a "step-up" for their democracy, one in which previously homogenous regimes transfer power to an opposition party that fairly won the election. After doing so, liberal-democracy indicators and democracy indicators were evaluated in the five years prior to and after the election took place, and over that ten-year period, we examine the data for trends. If we see positive or negative trends over this time horizon, we are able to conclude that it was the recent increase in the quality of their democracy which led to it. Having investigated examples of this in depth, there seem to be three main archetypes which drive the results. Countries with positive results to their democracy from the election have generally positive effects on their development, countries with more "plateau" like results also did well, but countries for whom the descent to authoritarianism was continued by this election found more negative results.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1712.04117
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