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摘要翻译：
这项研究回测了一个为数字货币比特币估值而提出的边际生产成本模型。传统回归和向量自回归(VAR)模型的结果表明，边际生产成本在解释比特币价格方面发挥了重要作用，挑战了最近关于比特币本质上毫无价值的指控。即使市场对比特币的定价为每块数千美元，估值模型似乎也很稳健。数据显示，始于2017年秋季的价格泡沫在2018年初自行化解，与边际成本模型趋同。这表明，尽管比特币市场可能会出现泡沫，但价格将倾向于这一约束，而不会崩溃到零。
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英文标题：
《Bitcoin price and its marginal cost of production: support for a
fundamental value》
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作者：
Adam Hayes
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最新提交年份：
2018
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分类信息：
一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：Econometrics 计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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英文摘要：
This study back-tests a marginal cost of production model proposed to value the digital currency bitcoin. Results from both conventional regression and vector autoregression (VAR) models show that the marginal cost of production plays an important role in explaining bitcoin prices, challenging recent allegations that bitcoins are essentially worthless. Even with markets pricing bitcoin in the thousands of dollars each, the valuation model seems robust. The data show that a price bubble that began in the Fall of 2017 resolved itself in early 2018, converging with the marginal cost model. This suggests that while bubbles may appear in the bitcoin market, prices will tend to this bound and not collapse to zero.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1805.07610
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