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摘要翻译：
本文重新讨论了Sornette、Takayasu和Zhou提出的描述恶性通货膨胀的模型，该模型基于适应预期，适应预期由幂律表示，从而导致有限时间奇点。建议用理论公式中引入的参数来明确表示价格指数的演变，避免原工作中使用的任何参数组合。当价格指数的测量有误差时，该程序可以明确地研究这些参数的不确定性。这样，就有可能确定奇点发生的临界时间内的不确定性。为此，采用蒙特卡罗模拟技术。秘鲁（1969-90）和德国魏玛（1920-3）的恶性通货膨胀事件被重新审视。报告了在这个框架内对希腊（1941-4）和南斯拉夫（1991-4）发生的非常极端的高通货膨胀进行的第一次分析。对津巴布韦目前经历的恶性通货膨胀螺旋的研究预测了一个奇点，即两年内经济完全崩溃。
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英文标题：
《Finite-time singularity in the evolution of hyperinflation episodes》
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作者：
Martin A. Szybisz and Leszek Szybisz
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最新提交年份：
2008
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分类信息：
一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Computational Finance 计算金融学
分类描述：Computational methods, including Monte Carlo, PDE, lattice and other numerical methods with applications to financial modeling
计算方法，包括蒙特卡罗，偏微分方程，格子和其他数值方法，并应用于金融建模
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一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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英文摘要：
A model proposed by Sornette, Takayasu, and Zhou for describing hyperinflation regimes based on adaptive expectations expressed in terms of a power law which leads to a finite-time singularity is revisited. It is suggested to express the price index evolution explicitly in terms of the parameters introduced along the theoretical formulation avoiding any combination of them used in the original work. This procedure allows to study unambiguously the uncertainties of such parameters when an error is assigned to the measurement of the price index. In this way, it is possible to determine an uncertainty in the critical time at which the singularity occurs. For this purpose, Monte Carlo simulation techniques are applied. The hyperinflation episodes of Peru (1969-90) and Weimar Germany (1920-3) are reexamined. The first analyses performed within this framework of the very extreme hyper-inflations occurred in Greece (1941-4) and Yugoslavia (1991-4) are reported. The study of the hyperinflation spiral experienced just nowadays in Zimbabwe predicts a singularity, i.e., a complete economic crash within two years.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/0802.3553
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