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摘要翻译：
尽管控制措施有所改善，但埃博拉在非洲地区仍然是一个严重的公共卫生风险，自1976年首次疫情以来，非洲地区一直观察到反复爆发疫情。利用流行病模型和来自两次有充分记录的埃博拉疫情（刚果1995年和乌干达2000年）的数据，我们估计了在没有控制干预措施的情况下由一个指标病例产生的继发病例数($R_0$)。我们估计刚果（1995）为1.83(SD0.06)，乌干达（2000）为1.34(SD0.03)。我们通过SEIR（易感-暴露-感染-清除）流行病模型对疫情的过程进行建模，该模型包括控制干预措施到位后传播率的平稳过渡。我们对基本生殖数$R_0$进行不确定性分析，以量化其对其他疾病相关参数的敏感性。我们还分析了最终疫情规模对干预开始时间的敏感性，并提供了最终疫情规模的分布。在这两次疫情期间实施的控制措施（包括教育和接触者追踪，然后是隔离）使最终疫情规模相对于最终规模减少了2倍，但实施延迟了两周。
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英文标题：
《The Basic Reproductive Number of Ebola and the Effects of Public Health
Measures: The Cases of Congo and Uganda》
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作者：
Gerardo Chowell, Nick W. Hengartner, Carlos Castillo-Chavez, and Paul
W. Fenimore, J. M. Hyman
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最新提交年份：
2005
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分类信息：
一级分类：Quantitative Biology 数量生物学
二级分类：Other Quantitative Biology 其他定量生物学
分类描述：Work in quantitative biology that does not fit into the other q-bio classifications
不适合其他q-bio分类的定量生物学工作
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英文摘要：
Despite improved control measures, Ebola remains a serious public health risk in African regions where recurrent outbreaks have been observed since the initial epidemic in 1976. Using epidemic modeling and data from two well-documented Ebola outbreaks (Congo 1995 and Uganda 2000), we estimate the number of secondary cases generated by an index case in the absence of control interventions ($R_0$). Our estimate of $R_0$ is 1.83 (SD 0.06) for Congo (1995) and 1.34 (SD 0.03) for Uganda (2000). We model the course of the outbreaks via an SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) epidemic model that includes a smooth transition in the transmission rate after control interventions are put in place. We perform an uncertainty analysis of the basic reproductive number $R_0$ to quantify its sensitivity to other disease-related parameters. We also analyze the sensitivity of the final epidemic size to the time interventions begin and provide a distribution for the final epidemic size. The control measures implemented during these two outbreaks (including education and contact tracing followed by quarantine) reduce the final epidemic size by a factor of 2 relative the final size with a two-week delay in their implementation.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/q-bio/0503006
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