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摘要翻译：
两性基本繁殖数(BRN)被用来调查人类免疫缺陷病毒(HIV)在撒哈拉以南非洲通过异性接触传播的条件。（BRN是一个受感染的个体所产生的新感染的预期数量；如果BRN大于1，疾病就会传播）。根据最近关于生存率、传播概率和性活动水平的数据，导出了一个简单的BRN分析表达式。基线结果表明，在总体人口中（以男女人数相等为特征），如果每个人每年与不同的伴侣发生82次性接触，则BRN大于1。如果每个商业性工作者每年约有256个客户，每个客户每两周访问一个商业性工作者，则商业性工作者及其客户（两个不同规模的人群）的BRN也大于1。敏感性分析探讨了传播概率加倍（或减半）对BRN的影响。讨论了含义和扩展。
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英文标题：
《Does heterosexual transmission drive the HIV/AIDS epidemic in
Sub-Saharan Africa (or elsewhere)?》
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作者：
Marc Artzrouni (LMA - PAU), Vivient Kamla (LMA - PAU)
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最新提交年份：
2007
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分类信息：
一级分类：Statistics 统计学
二级分类：Applications 应用程序
分类描述：Biology, Education, Epidemiology, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Medical, Physical Sciences, Quality Control, Social Sciences
生物学，教育学，流行病学，工程学，环境科学，医学，物理科学，质量控制，社会科学
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英文摘要：
A two-sex Basic Reproduction Number (BRN) is used to investigate the conditions under which the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) may spread through heterosexual contacts in Sub-Saharan Africa. (The BRN is the expected number of new infections generated by one infected individual; the disease spreads if the BRN is larger than 1). A simple analytical expression for the BRN is derived on the basis of recent data on survival rates, transmission probabilities, and levels of sexual activity. Baseline results show that in the population at large (characterized by equal numbers of men and women) the BRN is larger than 1 if every year each person has 82 sexual contacts with different partners. the BRN is also larger than 1 for commercial sex workers (CSWs) and their clients (two populations of different sizes) if each CSW has about 256 clients per year and each client visits one CSW every two weeks. A sensitivity analysis explores the effect on the BRN of a doubling (or a halving) of the transmission probabilities. Implications and extensions are discussed.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/707.06
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