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摘要翻译：
粮食不安全与几种健康状况的风险增加以及慢性病管理不善有关。家庭粮食不安全的主要决定因素是收入和粮食成本。虽然短期家庭收入可能保持不变，但粮食价格上涨将是粮食不安全的一个重要驱动因素。调查在英国退出欧盟达成协议和不达成协议的情况下，英国家庭粮食安全的食品价格驱动因素及其健康后果。估计预测价格分布的5%和95%分位数。结构化专家判断引出，一种成熟的方法，用于量化不确定性，使用专家。2018年7月，假设英国退出欧盟于2019年3月29日发生，每位专家估计了截至2020年6月英国脱欧协议和无协议下十个食品类别价格变化的中位数、5%和95%分位数。这些数据是根据校准问题专家的准确性和信息量汇总而成的。粮食采购、零售、农业、经济、统计和家庭粮食安全方面的10名专家。结果：将用于计算消费者价格指数食品篮子成本的比例组合起来，有交易的英国退出欧盟食品价格变化中值预计为+6.1%[90%可信区间:-3%，+17%]，无交易的为+22.5%[+1%，+52%]。经历粮食不安全的家庭数量及其严重程度可能会增加，因为预计在英国退出欧盟之后，粮食价格中值将大幅上升。较高的增长比较低的增长更有可能，接近上限，这将带来严重的影响。研究表明，粮食预算低导致饮食越来越差，这表明，由于粮食不安全对饮食敏感疾病的发病率和管理的影响，对保健服务的短期和长期需求都可能增加。
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英文标题：
《Anticipated impacts of Brexit scenarios on UK food prices and
implications for policies on poverty and health: a structured expert
judgement approach》
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作者：
Martine J Barons and Willy Aspinall
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最新提交年份：
2020
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分类信息：
一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：General Economics 一般经济学
分类描述：General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Economics 经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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英文摘要：
Food insecurity is associated with increased risk for several health conditions and with poor chronic disease management. Key determinants for household food insecurity are income and food costs. Whereas short-term household incomes are likely to remain static, increased food prices would be a significant driver of food insecurity. To investigate food price drivers for household food security and its health consequences in the UK under scenarios of Deal and No deal for Brexit . To estimate the 5\% and 95\% quantiles of the projected price distributions. Structured expert judgement elicitation, a well-established method for quantifying uncertainty, using experts. In July 2018, each expert estimated the median, 5\% and 95\% quantiles of changes in price for ten food categories under Brexit Deal and No-deal to June 2020 assuming Brexit had taken place on 29th March 2019. These were aggregated based on the accuracy and informativeness of the experts on calibration questions. Ten specialists in food procurement, retail, agriculture, economics, statistics and household food security. Results: when combined in proportions used to calculate Consumer Prices Index food basket costs, median food price change for Brexit with a Deal is expected to be +6.1\% [90\% credible interval:-3\%, +17\%] and with No deal +22.5\% [+1\%, +52\%]. The number of households experiencing food insecurity and its severity are likely to increase because of expected sizeable increases in median food prices after Brexit. Higher increases are more likely than lower rises and towards the upper limits, these would entail severe impacts. Research showing a low food budget leads to increasingly poor diet suggests that demand for health services in both the short and longer term is likely to increase due to the effects of food insecurity on the incidence and management of diet-sensitive conditions.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1904.03053
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