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雷达卡
摘要翻译：
我对最近发表的关于人类冲突和全球恐怖主义中暴力事件的升级、时间和严重程度的几项结果进行了统一讨论，并将其置于现实世界和基于网络的集体暴力和非法活动的更广泛背景下。我指出，从叛乱、恐怖主义、犯罪团伙和网络战争到2011年阿拉伯之春起义和伦敦骚乱，这些活动之间的界限在实践中变得越来越模糊。我回顾了已经发现的稳健的经验模式，并总结了一个可以解释这些模式的最小机制模型。我还解释了为什么这种受非平衡统计物理启发的机械论方法自然地适合于有关分析社会学的社会科学文献中的最新思想框架。顺便说一句，我指出了最近出现的关于这些结果的稳健性和潜在模型机制的现实性的每一种批评中的根本缺陷。
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英文标题：
《Escalation, timing and severity of insurgent and terrorist events:
Toward a unified theory of future threats》
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作者：
Neil F. Johnson
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最新提交年份：
2011
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分类信息：
一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Statistical Mechanics 统计力学
分类描述：Phase transitions, thermodynamics, field theory, non-equilibrium phenomena, renormalization group and scaling, integrable models, turbulence
相变，热力学，场论，非平衡现象，重整化群和标度，可积模型，湍流
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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英文摘要：
I present a unified discussion of several recently published results concerning the escalation, timing and severity of violent events in human conflicts and global terrorism, and set them in the wider context of real-world and cyber-based collective violence and illicit activity. I point out how the borders distinguishing between such activities are becoming increasingly blurred in practice -- from insurgency, terrorism, criminal gangs and cyberwars, through to the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings and London riots. I review the robust empirical patterns that have been found, and summarize a minimal mechanistic model which can explain these patterns. I also explain why this mechanistic approach, which is inspired by non-equilibrium statistical physics, fits naturally within the framework of recent ideas within the social science literature concerning analytical sociology. In passing, I flag the fundamental flaws in each of the recent critiques which have surfaced concerning the robustness of these results and the realism of the underlying model mechanisms.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1109.2076
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