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摘要翻译：
本文的目的是提出一种新的“理论”，即金融市场战略分析(SAFM)理论，它用一个开明的赌徒的分析视角来解释金融市场的运作。赌徒明白，所有优越业绩的机会都来自人类的次优决策，但也明白，仅有人类决策的知识不足以理解市场行为--人们仍然必须建立这些决策如何导致市场价格的模型。因此，该模型有三个部分：博弈论、人的决策和战略问题解决。一个新的理论是必要的，因为在2017年的写作中，没有一个金融市场理论可以被实践者和理论家接受。例如，理论家的有效市场理论无法解释泡沫和崩溃，也无法解释沃伦·巴菲特和乔治·索罗斯等著名投资者和投机者的非凡回报。同时，一个新的理论必须足够定量，解释市场“异常”，并提供预测，以满足理论家。希望SAFM框架能够满足这些要求。
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英文标题：
《Why Markets are Inefficient: A Gambling "Theory" of Financial Markets
For Practitioners and Theorists》
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作者：
Steven D. Moffitt
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最新提交年份：
2018
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分类信息：
一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：Econometrics 计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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英文摘要：
The purpose of this article is to propose a new "theory," the Strategic Analysis of Financial Markets (SAFM) theory, that explains the operation of financial markets using the analytical perspective of an enlightened gambler. The gambler understands that all opportunities for superior performance arise from suboptimal decisions by humans, but understands also that knowledge of human decision making alone is not enough to understand market behavior --- one must still model how those decisions lead to market prices. Thus are there three parts to the model: gambling theory, human decision making, and strategic problem solving. A new theory is necessary because at this writing in 2017, there is no theory of financial markets acceptable to both practitioners and theorists. Theorists' efficient market theory, for example, cannot explain bubbles and crashes nor the exceptional returns of famous investors and speculators such as Warren Buffett and George Soros. At the same time, a new theory must be sufficiently quantitative, explain market "anomalies" and provide predictions in order to satisfy theorists. It is hoped that the SAFM framework will meet these requirements.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1801.01948
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