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摘要翻译：
化石燃料对21世纪进一步变暖的贡献将主要取决于随时间推移的综合CO2排放量，而不是排放的确切时间，全球变暖与累积CO2排放量之间的关系接近成比例。本文研究了在累积排放量的外生约束下的最优减排途径。成本最小的减排途径使碳税以无风险利率上升，但如果将内生学习或气候损害成本纳入分析，碳税增长更慢。在最优化中加入损害成本会导致更高的初始碳税，而学习的效果取决于它对边际成本曲线的贡献是加成还是乘法。乘法模型在文献中很常见，导致延迟减少和较小的初始税收。所需的初始碳税随着累积减排目标而增加，利率较低时更高。由于边际减排成本不断增加，推迟开始减排的成本很高。较低的利率导致推迟减排的相对成本较高，因为这会在早期导致更高的减排率。在最佳途径中避免的一切照旧排放(BAU)的比例因低利率和减排成本曲线的快速增长而增加，这使得在温度不超调的情况下可以实现较低阈值的全球变暖目标。开始削减的每一年延迟，这一阈值就会增加，因为削减率随时间呈指数增长。
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英文标题：
《Economics of carbon-dioxide abatement under an exogenous constraint on
cumulative emissions》
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作者：
Ashwin K Seshadri
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最新提交年份：
2020
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分类信息：
一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：General Economics 一般经济学
分类描述：General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：Economics 经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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英文摘要：
The fossil-fuel induced contribution to further warming over the 21st century will be determined largely by integrated CO2 emissions over time rather than the precise timing of the emissions, with a relation of near-proportionality between global warming and cumulative CO2 emissions. This paper examines optimal abatement pathways under an exogenous constraint on cumulative emissions. Least cost abatement pathways have carbon tax rising at the risk-free interest rate, but if endogenous learning or climate damage costs are included in the analysis, the carbon tax grows more slowly. The inclusion of damage costs in the optimization leads to a higher initial carbon tax, whereas the effect of learning depends on whether it appears as an additive or multiplicative contribution to the marginal cost curve. Multiplicative models are common in the literature and lead to delayed abatement and a smaller initial tax. The required initial carbon tax increases with the cumulative abatement goal and is higher for lower interest rates. Delaying the start of abatement is costly owing to the increasing marginal abatement cost. Lower interest rates lead to higher relative costs of delaying abatement because these induce higher abatement rates early on. The fraction of business-as-usual emissions (BAU) avoided in optimal pathways increases for low interest rates and rapid growth of the abatement cost curve, which allows a lower threshold global warming goal to become attainable without overshoot in temperature. Each year of delay in starting abatement raises this threshold by an increasing amount, because the abatement rate increases exponentially with time.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1808.08717
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