动态贝弗里奇曲线核算

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摘要翻译：
我们发展了经验贝弗里奇曲线的动态分解，即以失业为条件的空缺水平。利用一个标准模型，我们证明了三个因素可以使贝弗里奇曲线移动：简化形式匹配效率、工作分离率的变化和非稳态动态。我们发现，大衰退期间和之后贝弗里奇曲线的移动是由这三个因素造成的，每个因素单独考虑都有很大的影响。与2010年前后相比，匹配效率的下降和非稳态动态都推动了曲线的上升，而分离率的变化推动了曲线的下降。净影响是在失业情况下，职位空缺出现上升趋势。在以前的衰退中，匹配效率的变化相对不重要，而动态和分离率的影响更大。因此，大衰退的不同寻常的特征是匹配效率的恶化，而分离和动态在大多数衰退中发挥了重要的部分抵消作用。后两条边的重要性与许多文献形成鲜明对比，这些文献是从其中一条或两条边中抽象出来的。我们表明，这些因素影响经验贝弗里奇曲线的斜率，这是最近福利分析中估计自然失业率的一个重要量。
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英文标题：
《Dynamic Beveridge Curve Accounting》
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作者：
Hie Joo Ahn, Leland D. Crane
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最新提交年份：
2020
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：General Economics        一般经济学
分类描述：General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance        数量金融学
二级分类：Economics        经济学
分类描述：q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学，包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
--

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英文摘要：
  We develop a dynamic decomposition of the empirical Beveridge curve, i.e., the level of vacancies conditional on unemployment. Using a standard model, we show that three factors can shift the Beveridge curve: reduced-form matching efficiency, changes in the job separation rate, and out-of-steady-state dynamics. We find that the shift in the Beveridge curve during and after the Great Recession was due to all three factors, and each factor taken separately had a large effect. Comparing the pre-2010 period to the post-2010 period, a fall in matching efficiency and out-of-steady-state dynamics both pushed the curve upward, while the changes in the separation rate pushed the curve downward. The net effect was the observed upward shift in vacancies given unemployment. In previous recessions changes in matching efficiency were relatively unimportant, while dynamics and the separation rate had more impact. Thus, the unusual feature of the Great Recession was the deterioration in matching efficiency, while separations and dynamics have played significant, partially offsetting roles in most downturns. The importance of these latter two margins contrasts with much of the literature, which abstracts from one or both of them. We show that these factors affect the slope of the empirical Beveridge curve, an important quantity in recent welfare analyses estimating the natural rate of unemployment.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.00033

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关键词：贝弗里奇 unemployment Quantitative Contribution Internation Beveridge 失业 unemployment 变化 鲜明对比