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摘要翻译：
洪水分位点估计在许多工程研究和决策中具有重要意义。然而，从业者必须经常处理可用的小数据。因此，信息必须得到最佳利用。在过去的几十年里，为了减少数据的浪费，推论方法已经从每年的极大值模型发展到超过一个阈值的峰值模型。为了减少数据的缺乏，超过阈值的峰值有时会与额外的信息结合起来--主要是区域和历史信息。然而，无论额外的信息是什么，对从业者来说，最宝贵的信息是在目标地点找到的。在本研究中，引入了一个允许对整个时间序列进行推断的模型。特别地，该模型利用适当的极值依赖结构考虑了连续极值观测之间的依赖关系。结果表明，该模型比传统的洪峰分位数估计方法具有更高的精度。此外，由于考虑了时间依赖性，可以对其他洪水特征进行推断。给出了洪水持续时间的实例。我们的分析表明，所提出的模型估计洪水持续时间的精度与特定的集水区特征有关。提出了提高洪水历时预报的几点建议。
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英文标题：
《Modeling All Exceedances Above a Threshold Using an Extremal Dependence
Structure: Inferences on Several Flood Characteristics》
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作者：
Mathieu Ribatet (UR HHLY, INRS), Taha B.M.J. Ouarda (INRS), Eric
Sauquet (UR HHLY), Jean-Michel Gr\'esillon (UR HHLY)
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最新提交年份：
2008
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分类信息：
一级分类：Statistics 统计学
二级分类：Applications 应用程序
分类描述：Biology, Education, Epidemiology, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Medical, Physical Sciences, Quality Control, Social Sciences
生物学，教育学，流行病学，工程学，环境科学，医学，物理科学，质量控制，社会科学
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英文摘要：
Flood quantile estimation is of great importance for many engineering studies and policy decisions. However, practitioners must often deal with small data available. Thus, the information must be used optimally. In the last decades, to reduce the waste of data, inferential methodology has evolved from annual maxima modeling to peaks over a threshold one. To mitigate the lack of data, peaks over a threshold are sometimes combined with additional information - mostly regional and historical information. However, whatever the extra information is, the most precious information for the practitioner is found at the target site. In this study, a model that allows inferences on the whole time series is introduced. In particular, the proposed model takes into account the dependence between successive extreme observations using an appropriate extremal dependence structure. Results show that this model leads to more accurate flood peak quantile estimates than conventional estimators. In addition, as the time dependence is taken into account, inferences on other flood characteristics can be performed. An illustration is given on flood duration. Our analysis shows that the accuracy of the proposed models to estimate the flood duration is related to specific catchment characteristics. Some suggestions to increase the flood duration predictions are introduced.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/802.0436
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