新冠肺炎期间的非洲冲突：社交距离、食物 脆弱性与福利反应

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摘要翻译：
我们研究了社会距离、粮食脆弱性、福利和劳工新冠肺炎政策应对措施对骚乱、针对平民的暴力和与粮食有关的冲突的影响。我们的分析使用了24个非洲国家的地理数据，其中包括2015年1月至2020年5月初武装冲突地点和事件数据项目(ACLED)报告的每月当地价格和实时冲突数据。针对新冠肺炎实施了封锁和最近的福利政策，但在某些情况下，也可能是为了应对持续的冲突。为了减少内生性的潜在风险，我们使用工具变量。我们利用了全球商品价格的异质性，以及增加新冠肺炎风险和应对效率的三个变量，如国家殖民遗产、空气污染导致的男性死亡率和成人糖尿病患病率。我们发现，自封锁以来，发生骚乱、针对平民的暴力、与粮食有关的冲突和粮食抢劫的可能性增加了。粮食脆弱性是一个促成因素。当地物价指数增加10%，与针对平民的暴力行为增加0.7个百分点相关联。然而，为应对新冠肺炎疫情而采取的每一项除贫措施，发生针对平民的暴力、暴乱和与粮食有关的冲突的可能性就会下降约0.2个百分点。这些除贫措施还减少了与这些冲突有关的死亡人数。总的来说，我们的调查结果表明，粮食脆弱性增加了冲突风险，但也对国家在提供广泛的福利安全网方面的重要性提出了乐观的看法。
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英文标题：
《Conflict in Africa during COVID-19: social distancing, food
  vulnerability and welfare response》
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作者：
Roxana Guti\'errez-Romero
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最新提交年份：
2020
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分类信息：

一级分类：Economics        经济学
二级分类：Econometrics        计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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一级分类：Physics        物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society        物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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英文摘要：
  We study the effect of social distancing, food vulnerability, welfare and labour COVID-19 policy responses on riots, violence against civilians and food-related conflicts. Our analysis uses georeferenced data for 24 African countries with monthly local prices and real-time conflict data reported in the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) from January 2015 until early May 2020. Lockdowns and recent welfare policies have been implemented in light of COVID-19, but in some contexts also likely in response to ongoing conflicts. To mitigate the potential risk of endogeneity, we use instrumental variables. We exploit the exogeneity of global commodity prices, and three variables that increase the risk of COVID-19 and efficiency in response such as countries colonial heritage, male mortality rate attributed to air pollution and prevalence of diabetes in adults. We find that the probability of experiencing riots, violence against civilians, food-related conflicts and food looting has increased since lockdowns. Food vulnerability has been a contributing factor. A 10% increase in the local price index is associated with an increase of 0.7 percentage points in violence against civilians. Nonetheless, for every additional anti-poverty measure implemented in response to COVID-19 the probability of experiencing violence against civilians, riots and food-related conflicts declines by approximately 0.2 percentage points. These anti-poverty measures also reduce the number of fatalities associated with these conflicts. Overall, our findings reveal that food vulnerability has increased conflict risks, but also offer an optimistic view of the importance of the state in providing an extensive welfare safety net.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.10696

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关键词：脆弱性 econometrics Contributing instrumental Quantitative 肺炎 福利 应对 冲突 死亡率