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摘要翻译：
国内生产总值(GDP)是一个广泛使用的衡量经济增长的指标，代表一个国家在一定时间内生产的所有最终商品和服务的市场价值。在本文中，我们对GDP衡量生产的假设提出质疑，并认为在现实中，它仅仅捕捉了用来衡量价格数据的货币供应量扩张速度的变化。我们首先回顾了货币量理论$MV=Pt$，并证明货币流通速度(V)并不影响所声称的价格水平，因为它也是交易量(T)的一个因素。因此，直接得出的结论是，试图用任何形式的价格数据来衡量总产量，就像衡量GDP那样，必然会被价格和生产量之间的反比关系所混淆，这种反比关系要求随着生产量的增加，价格会下降。最后，为了支持这一观点，我们对九个国家和一个货币联盟的GDP进行了实证分析，表明当货币供应增长正常化时，GDP指标在过去20年中一直在下降，并讨论了这种行为的可能原因。
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英文标题：
《Does GDP measure growth in the economy or simply growth in the money
supply?》
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作者：
Jacky Mallett, Charles Keen
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最新提交年份：
2012
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分类信息：
一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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英文摘要：
Gross Domestic Product(GDP) is a widely used measurement of economic growth representing the market value of all final goods and services produced by a country within a given time. In this paper we question the assumption that GDP measures production, and suggest that in reality it merely captures changes in the rate of expansion of the money supply used to measure the price data it is derived from. We first review the Quantity Theory of Money $MV=PT$, and show that the Velocity of Circulation of Money(V) does not affect the price level as claimed, as it is also a factor of the quantity of transactions(T). It then follows directly that attempts to measure total production from any form of price data as the GDP measurement does, will necessarily be confounded by the inverse relationship between prices and the quantity of production, which requires that as the total quantity of production increases, prices will drop. Finally, in support of this claim we present an empirical analysis of the GDP of nine countries and one currency union, showing that when normalized for money supply growth GDP measures have been uniformly shrinking over the last 20 years, and discuss the possible reasons for this behaviour.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1208.0642
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