发帖
雷达卡
摘要翻译：
本文提出了一个基于顾客购买行为的贝叶斯框架，用于估计顾客终身价值(CLV)和顾客资产(CE)。拟议框架系统地处理了根据调查数据估计客户未来价值时所面临的挑战。利用先验信息，通过后验分布量化CE和CLV估计的不确定性，克服了调查数据的稀缺性和抽样方差。此外，在调查数据中可以获得的竞争对手客户的购买行为信息被整合到框架中。引入的方法直接适用于客户关系可以被认为是一夫一妻制的领域。作为框架使用的一个例子，我们分析了2013年2月在芬兰进行的一项关于移动电话的消费者调查。调查数据包含消费者关于手机当前和以前品牌的信息，以及最近两次购买的时间。
---
英文标题：
《Survey data and Bayesian analysis: a cost-efficient way to estimate
customer equity》
---
作者：
Juha Karvanen, Ari Rantanen, Lasse Luoma
---
最新提交年份：
2014
---
分类信息：
一级分类：Statistics 统计学
二级分类：Applications 应用程序
分类描述：Biology, Education, Epidemiology, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Medical, Physical Sciences, Quality Control, Social Sciences
生物学，教育学，流行病学，工程学，环境科学，医学，物理科学，质量控制，社会科学
--
一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
--
---
英文摘要：
We present a Bayesian framework for estimating the customer lifetime value (CLV) and the customer equity (CE) based on the purchasing behavior deducible from the market surveys on customer purchasing behavior. The proposed framework systematically addresses the challenges faced when the future value of customers is estimated based on survey data. The scarcity of the survey data and the sampling variance are countered by utilizing the prior information and quantifying the uncertainty of the CE and CLV estimates by posterior distributions. Furthermore, information on the purchase behavior of the customers of competitors available in the survey data is integrated to the framework. The introduced approach is directly applicable in the domains where a customer relationship can be thought to be monogamous. As an example on the use of the framework, we analyze a consumer survey on mobile phones carried out in Finland in February 2013. The survey data contains consumer given information on the current and previous brand of the phone and the times of the last two purchases.
---
PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1304.5380
京公网安备 11010802022788号
