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摘要翻译：
我们研究了持续增长在双边贸易中的作用和驱动因素。在一个具有市场进入成本的异质企业国际贸易模型的激励下，考虑了动态三元固定效应二元选择模型，并研究了相应的附带参数问题。标准最大似然估计在所有面板尺寸以恒定速率增长的渐近条件下是一致的，但它的极限分布存在渐近偏差，即使在偏差似乎很小的情况下也使推断无效。因此，我们提出了两种不同的偏差校正估计量。蒙特卡罗模拟证实了它们所期望的统计特性。我们将这些估计量应用于对广泛贸易差额的最常研究的决定因素的重新评估。真正的国家依赖和未观察到的异质性都大大促进了贸易的持久性，在确定贸易政策对广泛幅度的影响时，将这种持久性考虑在内具有重要意义。
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英文标题：
《State Dependence and Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Extensive Margin of
Trade》
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作者：
Julian Hinz, Amrei Stammann, Joschka Wanner
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最新提交年份：
2021
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分类信息：
一级分类：Economics 经济学
二级分类：Econometrics 计量经济学
分类描述：Econometric Theory, Micro-Econometrics, Macro-Econometrics, Empirical Content of Economic Relations discovered via New Methods, Methodological Aspects of the Application of Statistical Inference to Economic Data.
计量经济学理论，微观计量经济学，宏观计量经济学，通过新方法发现的经济关系的实证内容，统计推论应用于经济数据的方法论方面。
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英文摘要：
We study the role and drivers of persistence in the extensive margin of bilateral trade. Motivated by a stylized heterogeneous firms model of international trade with market entry costs, we consider dynamic three-way fixed effects binary choice models and study the corresponding incidental parameter problem. The standard maximum likelihood estimator is consistent under asymptotics where all panel dimensions grow at a constant rate, but it has an asymptotic bias in its limiting distribution, invalidating inference even in situations where the bias appears to be small. Thus, we propose two different bias-corrected estimators. Monte Carlo simulations confirm their desirable statistical properties. We apply these estimators in a reassessment of the most commonly studied determinants of the extensive margin of trade. Both true state dependence and unobserved heterogeneity contribute considerably to trade persistence and taking this persistence into account matters significantly in identifying the effects of trade policies on the extensive margin.
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PDF链接：
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.12655
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