《Predictive regressions for macroeconomic data》
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作者:
Fukang Zhu, Zongwu Cai, Liang Peng
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最新提交年份:
2014
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英文摘要:
Researchers have constantly asked whether stock returns can be predicted by some macroeconomic data. However, it is known that macroeconomic data may exhibit nonstationarity and/or heavy tails, which complicates existing testing procedures for predictability. In this paper we propose novel empirical likelihood methods based on some weighted score equations to test whether the monthly CRSP value-weighted index can be predicted by the log dividend-price ratio or the log earnings-price ratio. The new methods work well both theoretically and empirically regardless of the predicting variables being stationary or nonstationary or having an infinite variance.
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中文摘要:
研究人员一直在问,一些宏观经济数据能否预测股票收益。然而,众所周知,宏观经济数据可能表现出非平稳性和/或重尾,这使现有的可预测性测试程序变得复杂。在本文中,我们提出了一种新的基于加权分数方程的经验似然方法来检验月度CRSP价值加权指数是否可以通过对数股息价格比或对数收益价格比来预测。无论预测变量是平稳的或非平稳的,或具有无穷大的方差,新方法在理论上和经验上都能很好地工作。
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分类信息:
一级分类:Statistics 统计学
二级分类:Applications 应用程序
分类描述:Biology, Education, Epidemiology, Engineering, Environmental Sciences, Medical, Physical Sciences, Quality Control, Social Sciences
生物学,教育学,流行病学,工程学,环境科学,医学,物理科学,质量控制,社会科学
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一级分类:Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类:Statistical Finance 统计金融
分类描述:Statistical, econometric and econophysics analyses with applications to financial markets and economic data
统计、计量经济学和经济物理学分析及其在金融市场和经济数据中的应用
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