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俺的翻译:)
Disaster takes toll on Japan’s economy
Japan’s devastating earthquake and tsunami pushed the economy much further into recession than expected, raising doubts about the prospects for the world’s third-largest economy.
According to preliminary data released on Thursday, gross domestic product fell 0.9 per cent in the first quarter of this year compared with the previous three months. That was nearly twice the decline forecast by economists.
Kaoru Yosano, minister for economics and fiscal policy, said that the March 11 disaster had been the main reason for the fall in output, and insisted that growth would soon return. “The Japanese economy has a great deal of resiliency,” Mr Yosano said.
However, the extent of the first-quarter fall – equivalent to a 3.7 per cent decline on an annualised basis – underscores the scale of the disruption caused by the natural disaster and resulting nuclear crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi power plant.
Japan’s economy has now contracted for two quarters in a row, meeting the most widely used definition of a recession.
Government statisticians now say that output fell 0.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the last three months of 2010, a much sharper decline than the 0.3 per cent initially estimated. Preliminary estimates of Japanese GDP growth are often dramatically revised as more accurate data becomes available.
Frederic Neumann, economist at HSBC Global Research, said the fourth quarter revision suggested that even before the March 11 disaster, the economy’s underlying momentum “wasn’t as robust as widely thought”.
“The ground is slipping,” Mr Neumann wrote in a report.
However, Japan has seen some signs of recovery. The Reuters Tankan survey – a monthly measure of business sentiment modelled on the Bank of Japan’s own Tankan report – this week showed that the mood among manufacturers was improving.
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灾难让日本经济付出代价
日本毁灭性的地震和海啸将经济推入远超预期的低谷之中,从而让人产生了对这一世界第三大经济体未来前景的担忧。
通过周四的初始数据显示,今年一季度GDP比起之前的三个月降低了0.9个百分点。这几乎是之前经济学家预测下降幅度的两倍。
谢野馨,经济财政大臣,说3.11号的灾难是产出下降的主因,并且坚信经济复苏将迅速回归。“日本经济具有极大的弹性。”谢野馨先生说到。
然而,第一季度经济下滑的扩大——相当于年基础利率3.7个百分点的下降——强化了由于自然灾害和其所引起的福岛核事故所产生的破坏规模。
日本的经济已经连续两个季度持续萎缩,符合最为广泛的衰退的定义。
gov的统计学家本季度环比2010年最后的三个月下降0.8个百分点,较之前预测的总共0.3个百分点的下降大的多。初步估计日本GDP增长大幅修改为更准确的数据的情况将出现。
Frederic Neumann,汇丰银行全球研究所的经济学家,谈到四季度的下降,认为即使是在3.11号的灾难以前,经济的增长潜力“也没有外界广泛想象的那么强劲”。
“地面在渐渐松弛,”Neuman先生在一份报告中这样写到。
然而,日本已经显现出来一些复苏迹象。路透财经短观调查——一份仿效日本央行短观调查的每月衡量商业景气报告——本周显示制造业的情绪在上升中。
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