《Solving the Equity Risk Premium Puzzle and Inching Towards a Theory of
Everything》
---
作者:
Ravi Kashyap
---
最新提交年份:
2019
---
英文摘要:
The equity risk premium puzzle is that the return on equities has far exceeded the average return on short-term risk-free debt and cannot be explained by conventional representative-agent consumption based equilibrium models. We review a few attempts done over the years to explain this anomaly: 1. Inclusion of highly unlikely events with low probability (Ugly state along with Good and Bad), or market crashes / Black Swans. 2. Slow moving habit, or time-varying subsistence level, added to the basic power utility function. 3. A separation of the inter-temporal elasticity of substitution and risk aversion, combined with long run risks which captures time varying economic uncertainty. We explore whether a fusion of the above approaches supplemented with better methods to handle the below reservations would provide a more realistic and yet tractable framework to tackle the various conundrums in the social sciences: 1. Unlimited ability of individuals to invest as compared to their ability to consume. 2. Lack of an objective measuring stick of value 3. Unintended consequences due to the dynamic nature of social systems 4. Relaxation of the transversality condition to avoid the formation of asset price bubbles 5. How durable is durable? Accounting for durable goods since nothing lasts forever The world we live in produces fascinating phenomenon despite (or perhaps, due to) being a hotchpotch of varying doses of the above elements. The rationale for a unified theory is that beauty can emerge from chaos since the best test for a stew is its taste. Many long standing puzzles seem to have been resolved using different techniques. The various explanations need to stand the test of time before acceptance; but then unexpected outcomes set in and new puzzles emerge. As real analysis and limits tell us: We are getting Closer and Closer; Yet it seems we are still Far Far Away...
---
中文摘要:
股权风险溢价之谜在于,股权回报率远远超过了无风险短期债务的平均回报率,无法用传统的基于代表性代理人消费的均衡模型来解释。我们回顾了多年来为解释这种异常现象所做的一些尝试:1。包括极不可能发生的低概率事件(丑陋的状态以及好与坏),或市场崩溃/黑天鹅。2.缓慢移动的习惯,或随时间变化的生存水平,添加到基本的电力效用功能中。3.将替代和风险规避的跨期弹性与捕获时变经济不确定性的长期风险相结合。我们探讨了上述方法的融合,以及处理以下保留意见的更好方法,是否会为解决社会科学中的各种难题提供一个更现实、更易处理的框架:1。与消费能力相比,个人的投资能力是无限的。2.缺乏客观的价值衡量标准3。由于社会系统的动态性质而产生的意外后果4。放宽横向性条件以避免资产价格泡沫的形成5。耐久性有多强?由于没有什么东西是永恒的,我们生活的世界产生了迷人的现象,尽管(或者可能是因为)上述元素的剂量各不相同。统一理论的基本原理是,美可以从混乱中显现,因为炖菜的最佳测试是它的味道。许多长期存在的谜题似乎都是用不同的技术解决的。各种解释在接受之前需要经受时间的考验;但随之而来的是意想不到的结果和新的困惑。正如实际分析和限制告诉我们的那样:我们越来越近了;然而,我们似乎还很遥远。。。
---
分类信息:
一级分类:Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类:General Finance 一般财务
分类描述:Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
--
一级分类:Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类:Economics 经济学
分类描述:q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学,包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
--
---
PDF下载:
-->