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Commodities Gain as Goldman Advises Buying
Commodities rebounded from the biggest drop in almost two weeks after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said it’s turning “more bullish” on raw materials, while stocks and U.S. index futures gained. Bonds declined.
Sugar jumped 2.7 percent, copper climbed 1.8 percent and oil advanced 1.5 percent at 8:45 a.m. in New York. The MSCI World (MXWO) Index rose 0.3 percent and futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased 0.4 percent. The euro strengthened 0.4 percent to $1.4094. Germany’s 10-year bund yield added four basis points and the yield on the Treasury note increased two basis points.
Goldman Sachs suggested buying oil, copper and zinc, reversing last month’s call to sell commodities, while Morgan Stanley raised its forecast for Brent crude by 20 percent. The Greek government endorsed an asset-sale plan and 6 billion euros ($8.4 billion) of budget cuts to win extra aid, while European Central Bank council member Christian Noyer said a restructuring of the country’s debt would be a “horror story.”
“The risk/reward once again favors being long commodities,” Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs in London, wrote in an e-mailed report today. “Economic growth will likely be sufficient to tighten key supply-constrained markets in the second half, leading to higher prices.”
The S&P GSCI index of 24 raw materials climbed 1.3 percent, after falling 1.7 percent yesterday. Oil gained $1.49 to $99.19 a barrel in New York. Goldman, which correctly advised investors to sell crude oil and copper last month before a price slump, raised its 12-month prediction for Brent crude to $130 a barrel from $107.
Arkema, Hellenic Telecom The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rallied 0.4 percent, recovering some of yesterday’s 1.7 percent decline. Hellenic Telecommunications Organization SA (HTO) and Hellenic Postbank SA climbed more than 3 percent as the Greek government said it will step up plans to sell its holdings in the companies. Renewable Energy Corp. ASA tumbled 13 percent after saying it will reduce output of wafers, cells and modules in response to current market conditions.
The increase in S&P 500 futures indicated the gauge will advance from the lowest level in a month. Alcoa Inc., the largest U.S. aluminum producer, rose 0.9 percent in pre-market trading. LinkedIn Corp. slipped 1.6 percent as investors including Lawrence Haverty of Gamco Investors Inc. said the hottest initial public offering in the U.S. since at least 2006 may not be growing fast enough to justify its valuation.
The yield on the two-year Treasury note added one basis point to 0.54 percent before the U.S. sells $35 billion of the notes, the first of three auctions this week totaling $99 billion. A government report at 10 a.m. in Washington may show purchases of new U.S. houses held close to a record low in April, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of 75 economists.
Russia, China The MSCI Emerging Markets Index gained 0.6 percent, rallying from its biggest slide in 11 months yesterday. Russia’s Micex Index rose 1.5 percent as OAO Gazprom, the country’s gas- export monopoly, climbed on an increased share-price estimate by Goldman. Mol Nyrt., Hungary’s largest oil company, led a 2.6 percent gain in the benchmark BUX Index. The Shanghai Composite Index slipped 0.3 percent, leaving the gauge 9.5 percent below this year’s high, on concern the government’s measures to curb inflation are slowing growth.
The euro strengthened 0.3 percent versus the yen. The Ifo institute in Munich said its German business climate index held at 114.2 from April, compared with a projected decline to 113.7 in a Bloomberg survey with 24 forecasts.
Pound, Dollar The pound weakened 0.2 percent against the Swiss franc after a report showed Britain posted its largest budget shortfall for any April since at least 1993 as tax income fell and spending climbed. Net borrowing was 10 billion pounds ($16 billion), compared with 7.2 billion pounds a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said in London today.
The New Zealand dollar appreciated against all 16 of its most-traded peers amid the rebound in commodities, with Australia’s dollar climbing 1.1 percent versus the greenback, snapping a two-day decline. The Dollar Index fell 0.2 percent, dropping for the first time in three days.
Portugal’s 10-year bond yield rose 14 basis points. The extra yield investors demand to hold the country’s debt instead of German bunds, Europe’s benchmark government securities, increased nine basis points to a record.
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