发帖
雷达卡
英文标题：
《Predicting the rise of right-wing populism in response to unbalanced
immigration》
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作者：
Boris Podobnik and Marko Jusup and H. Eugene Stanley
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最新提交年份：
2016
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英文摘要：
Among the central tenets of globalization is free migration of labor. Although much has been written about its benefits, little is known about the limitations of globalization, including how immigration affects the anti-globalist sentiment. Analyzing polls data, we find that over the last three years in a group of EU countries affected by the recent migrant crisis, the percentage of right-wing (RW) populist voters in a given country depends on the prevalence of immigrants in this country\'s population and the total immigration inflow into the entire EU. The latter is likely due to the EU resembling a supranational state, where the lack of inner borders causes that \"somebody else\'s problem\" easily turns into \"my problem\". We further find that the increase in the percentage of RW voters substantially surpasses the immigration inflow, implying that if this process continues, RW populism may democratically prevail and eventually lead to a demise of globalization. We present evidence for tipping points in relation to the rise of RW populism. Finally, we model these empirical findings using a complex network framework wherein the success of globalization largely rests on the balance between immigration and immigrant integration.
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中文摘要：
全球化的核心原则之一是劳动力的自由移徙。虽然关于全球化的好处已经写了很多，但对全球化的局限性知之甚少，包括移民如何影响反全球化情绪。通过分析民意调查数据，我们发现，在过去三年中，在一组受近期移民危机影响的欧盟国家中，某个国家右翼民粹主义选民的百分比取决于该国人口中移民的流行率以及整个欧盟的移民总流入量。后者可能是由于欧盟类似于一个超国家，缺乏内部边界导致“别人的问题”很容易变成“我的问题”。我们进一步发现，RW选民比例的增长大大超过了移民流入，这意味着如果这一过程继续下去，RW民粹主义可能会以民主方式盛行，并最终导致全球化的消亡。我们提出了RW民粹主义兴起的引爆点证据。最后，我们使用复杂的网络框架对这些实证结果进行建模，其中全球化的成功在很大程度上取决于移民和移民融合之间的平衡。
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分类信息：
一级分类：Physics 物理学
二级分类：Physics and Society 物理学与社会
分类描述：Structure, dynamics and collective behavior of societies and groups (human or otherwise). Quantitative analysis of social networks and other complex networks. Physics and engineering of infrastructure and systems of broad societal impact (e.g., energy grids, transportation networks).
社会和团体（人类或其他）的结构、动态和集体行为。社会网络和其他复杂网络的定量分析。具有广泛社会影响的基础设施和系统（如能源网、运输网络）的物理和工程。
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一级分类：Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类：General Finance 一般财务
分类描述：Development of general quantitative methodologies with applications in finance
通用定量方法的发展及其在金融中的应用
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