《Multi-agent Economics and the Emergence of Critical Markets》
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作者:
Michael S. Harr\\\'e
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最新提交年份:
2018
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英文摘要:
The dual crises of the sub-prime mortgage crisis and the global financial crisis has prompted a call for explanations of non-equilibrium market dynamics. Recently a promising approach has been the use of agent based models (ABMs) to simulate aggregate market dynamics. A key aspect of these models is the endogenous emergence of critical transitions between equilibria, i.e. market collapses, caused by multiple equilibria and changing market parameters. Several research themes have developed microeconomic based models that include multiple equilibria: social decision theory (Brock and Durlauf), quantal response models (McKelvey and Palfrey), and strategic complementarities (Goldstein). A gap that needs to be filled in the literature is a unified analysis of the relationship between these models and how aggregate criticality emerges from the individual agent level. This article reviews the agent-based foundations of markets starting with the individual agent perspective of McFadden and the aggregate perspective of catastrophe theory emphasising connections between the different approaches. It is shown that changes in the uncertainty agents have in the value of their interactions with one another, even if these changes are one-sided, plays a central role in systemic market risks such as market instability and the twin crises effect. These interactions can endogenously cause crises that are an emergent phenomena of markets.
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中文摘要:
次级抵押贷款危机和全球金融危机的双重危机促使人们呼吁解释非均衡市场动态。最近,一种很有希望的方法是使用基于代理的模型(ABM)来模拟总体市场动态。这些模型的一个关键方面是均衡之间的关键转变的内生出现,即由多重均衡和不断变化的市场参数引起的市场崩溃。一些研究主题发展了基于微观经济的模型,包括多重均衡:社会决策理论(Brock和Durlauf)、量子反应模型(McKelvey和Palfrey)和战略互补性(Goldstein)。文献中需要填补的一个空白是对这些模型之间关系的统一分析,以及如何从单个代理级别产生聚合临界性。本文回顾了基于代理的市场基础,从McFadden的个体代理视角和突变理论的总体视角出发,强调不同方法之间的联系。研究表明,不确定性因素的变化对其相互作用的价值产生影响,即使这些变化是单方面的,也在系统性市场风险中起着核心作用,如市场不稳定和双危机效应。这些相互作用可能内在地导致危机,这是市场的一种紧急现象。
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分类信息:
一级分类:Economics 经济学
二级分类:General Economics 一般经济学
分类描述:General methodological, applied, and empirical contributions to economics.
对经济学的一般方法、应用和经验贡献。
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一级分类:Physics 物理学
二级分类:Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems 自适应和自组织系统
分类描述:Adaptation, self-organizing systems, statistical physics, fluctuating systems, stochastic processes, interacting particle systems, machine learning
自适应,自组织系统,统计物理,波动系统,随机过程,相互作用粒子系统,机器学习
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一级分类:Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类:Computational Finance 计算金融学
分类描述:Computational methods, including Monte Carlo, PDE, lattice and other numerical methods with applications to financial modeling
计算方法,包括蒙特卡罗,偏微分方程,格子和其他数值方法,并应用于金融建模
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一级分类:Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类:Economics 经济学
分类描述:q-fin.EC is an alias for econ.GN. Economics, including micro and macro economics, international economics, theory of the firm, labor economics, and other economic topics outside finance
q-fin.ec是econ.gn的别名。经济学,包括微观和宏观经济学、国际经济学、企业理论、劳动经济学和其他金融以外的经济专题
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