《Multimodal deep learning for short-term stock volatility prediction》
---
作者:
Marcelo Sardelich and Suresh Manandhar
---
最新提交年份:
2018
---
英文摘要:
Stock market volatility forecasting is a task relevant to assessing market risk. We investigate the interaction between news and prices for the one-day-ahead volatility prediction using state-of-the-art deep learning approaches. The proposed models are trained either end-to-end or using sentence encoders transfered from other tasks. We evaluate a broad range of stock market sectors, namely Consumer Staples, Energy, Utilities, Heathcare, and Financials. Our experimental results show that adding news improves the volatility forecasting as compared to the mainstream models that rely only on price data. In particular, our model outperforms the widely-recognized GARCH(1,1) model for all sectors in terms of coefficient of determination $R^2$, $MSE$ and $MAE$, achieving the best performance when training from both news and price data.
---
中文摘要:
股票市场波动性预测是一项与评估市场风险相关的任务。我们使用最先进的深度学习方法研究了新闻和价格之间的相互作用,以进行一天前的波动率预测。所提出的模型要么端到端地训练,要么使用从其他任务转移过来的句子编码器。我们评估了广泛的股票市场部门,即消费品、能源、公用事业、医疗保健和金融。我们的实验结果表明,与只依赖价格数据的主流模型相比,添加新闻可以改善波动率预测。特别是,我们的模型在决定系数$R ^ 2$、$MSE$和$MAE$方面优于所有部门公认的GARCH(1,1)模型,在从新闻和价格数据进行培训时取得了最佳性能。
---
分类信息:
一级分类:Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类:Statistical Finance 统计金融
分类描述:Statistical, econometric and econophysics analyses with applications to financial markets and economic data
统计、计量经济学和经济物理学分析及其在金融市场和经济数据中的应用
--
一级分类:Computer Science 计算机科学
二级分类:Computation and Language 计算与语言
分类描述:Covers natural language processing. Roughly includes material in ACM Subject Class I.2.7. Note that work on artificial languages (programming languages, logics, formal systems) that does not explicitly address natural-language issues broadly construed (natural-language processing, computational linguistics, speech, text retrieval, etc.) is not appropriate for this area.
涵盖自然语言处理。大致包括ACM科目I.2.7类的材料。请注意,人工语言(编程语言、逻辑学、形式系统)的工作,如果没有明确地解决广义的自然语言问题(自然语言处理、计算语言学、语音、文本检索等),就不适合这个领域。
--
一级分类:Computer Science 计算机科学
二级分类:Machine Learning 机器学习
分类描述:Papers on all aspects of machine learning research (supervised, unsupervised, reinforcement learning, bandit problems, and so on) including also robustness, explanation, fairness, and methodology. cs.LG is also an appropriate primary category for applications of machine learning methods.
关于机器学习研究的所有方面的论文(有监督的,无监督的,强化学习,强盗问题,等等),包括健壮性,解释性,公平性和方法论。对于机器学习方法的应用,CS.LG也是一个合适的主要类别。
--
一级分类:Quantitative Finance 数量金融学
二级分类:Risk Management 风险管理
分类描述:Measurement and management of financial risks in trading, banking, insurance, corporate and other applications
衡量和管理贸易、银行、保险、企业和其他应用中的金融风险
--
一级分类:Statistics 统计学
二级分类:Machine Learning 机器学习
分类描述:Covers machine learning papers (supervised, unsupervised, semi-supervised learning, graphical models, reinforcement learning, bandits, high dimensional inference, etc.) with a statistical or theoretical grounding
覆盖机器学习论文(监督,无监督,半监督学习,图形模型,强化学习,强盗,高维推理等)与统计或理论基础
--
---
PDF下载:
-->