Equity Research_Chian_Gas_May 2011_GS

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China Energy_Gas_May 2011_GS.pdf (1021.03 KB, 需要: 1 个论坛币)

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Table of contents

Good demand prospects; still at early stage of growth cycle     2

Supply: Rising gas imports to sustain growth      10

Natural gas distribution: Identifying well-positioned players with our five-point investment scorecard      16

(1) Ability to secure new projects and capture industry consolidation opportunity      16

(2) Ability to pass through upstream cost hikes      20

(3) Economies of scale along with business growth      23

(4) Asset injections      24

(5) Sustainable growth      24

Valuation: Applying Director’s Cut to derive our target prices      27

Director’s Cut is primary methodology; we use DCF as a cross-check      27

Target price derivations      27

Cross-check with DCF      29

Sector is trading at mid-cycle P/E     30

Risk factors      31

Kunlun Energy (0135.HK, Buy (CL)): Emerging as a leader in LNG      33

Implementing strategy of substituting gas for oil     35

Building up the LNG value chain      36

LNG terminals set to contribute earnings in 2012      38

More asset injections ahead      39

Rapid growth in natural gas to boost earnings      42

Risk factors      43

China Resources Gas (1193.HK, Buy): Quality assets, solid growth      44

ENN Energy Holdings (2688.HK, Sell): Risks tilted to the downside      48

Beijing Enterprises (0392.HK, Neutral): Slowing growth ahead      50

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