J.P. Morgan Equity Research:China Banks

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2008-6-3 13:10:00 上传

J.P. Morgan Equity Research:China Banks
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Asia Pacific Equity Research
China banks
Some medium-size A-share banks now reasonably valued

发表机构：J.P. Morgan           发表时间：01 June 2008

格式：PDF                语言：英语           页码：35

Table of Contents
Select A-share banks worth a look .........................................3
Changes in our recommendations ................................................................................4
A-share unlocking: How much more pressure? ...........................................................4
Near-term liquidity pressure ........................................................................................6
Impact of cost pressure ................................................................................................7
Robust fee growth a key positive.................................................................................9
Absence of credit cost pressure....................................................................................9
Changes in our forecasts ............................................................................................11
Shanghai Pudong Development Bank..................................14
Shenzhen Development Bank ...............................................18
China Minsheng Banking Corporation .................................22
Huaxia Bank............................................................................26

• Valuations of A-share banks back to a reasonable level:
Following a sharp correction in the A-share market, the four
smaller A-share listed banks we cover are trading at 2008E 14x
P/E and 2.7x P/B. We believe valuations of some medium-size Ashare
banks have returned to a reasonable level and investors
should look at select banks with better earnings prospects.
• Divergence in operating trend among medium-size banks:
While profit growth for all listed Chinese banks was strong in
1Q08, some medium-size A-share banks showed better operating
trends. Funding franchise and fees played a key role, in our view.
Apart from CMB, SPDB and SZDB, in particular, stood out.
• No more unlocking of non-tradable shares in the near-term:
Except Huaxia, and to some extent Minsheng and SZDB, which
may still be subject to this pressure (June-08), most other A-share
banks should have digested this pressure. Liquidity premium
however will largely disappear in A-share market.
• Lower PTs for A-share banks; buy SPDB: In light of inflation,
we use a higher risk-free rate (5%) and trim our LT-growth
assumption, leading to lower price targets. Among A-share banks
under our coverage, we prefer SPDB from 6 month perspective,
which we upgrade to OW with a new Dec-08 PT of Rmb33.9. We
also like SZDB in longer-term given its undemanding valuations
and superior management quality. We maintain Neutral on
Minsheng and remain Underweight on Huaxia.

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