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Barclays Capital: The Emerging Markets Quarterly - Summer Storms
Date: 21 June 2011
Language: English
Format: PDF
Pages: 217
Table of Contents
OVERVIEW
Summer storms 4
The economic landscape appears particularly cluttered with risky turning points. We
maintain our constructive outlook but think that it makes sense to reduce risk and carefully
pick thematic trades.
EM Credit Portfolio..................................................................................................................................17
FX Views on a Page.................................................................................................................................19
Trade Summary .......................................................................................................................................21
MACRO OUTLOOK
Asia: There's a bear in the woods – Panda or grizzly? 24
We expect the slowdown in activity to be consistent with a soft landing. However, a deeper
slowdown cannot be entirely ruled out. Headline CPI inflation is expected to ease in H2 11,
but core inflation will remain elevated.
EEMEA: Homework done, but tough tests could lie ahead 28
Growth in the region, while still uneven, has improved further. However, in large parts of EM
Europe domestic demand is still fragile and recoveries could suffer. Greece is another risk to
which domestic policymakers have limited capacity to respond.
Latin America: “Ready to rumble” 33
The next quarter will likely be tough, with jitters coming from all over the globe. In spite of
the difficulty in implementing countercyclical fiscal policies in periods of better growth, the
region appears to be ready to fend off waves of volatility.
MARKET OUTLOOK
Asia: Showtime – The final scene 37
With front-end rates on a swansong, we would remain selectively paid. Even as long-end
rates are torn between inflation and growth risks, we prefer flatteners and long-end bonds.
We think the show is not yet over in Asian FX, but risks exist, and we would prefer going
long via options. In credit, we recommend investors set up macro hedges.
EEMEA: “Caught up” but not “caught out” by the storms 41
Global cyclical and European market uncertainties are unlikely to translate into lasting
problems for EEMEA markets. Market sentiment towards the CEE region has turned more
favourable. Positioning is no longer light but relief should come from a more benign supply
outlook, likely supporting asset price appreciation when markets stabilize.
Latin America: A cautious summer 46
Despite tight valuations, we think high-quality names offer attractive risk-reward and
recommend earning the carry on high yield short-dated bonds. In local markets, we see
near-term potential for USD/LatAm to fall. Yet we think that hedging long LatAm FX
positions with short AUD is attractive in case concerns about China’s growth deepen.
FOCUS
Emerging Markets Corporate Credit:
Decent entry points now, but do not expect a rally like last summer 52
We believe the current soft patch constitutes a mid-cycle slowdown. Credit spreads should
trade in a range over Q3. However, should the headwinds abate, the recovery from this bout
of risk aversion may be less profitable than the one in Q3 last year.
COUNTRY OUTLOOKS
Emerging Asia
China: Something has to give..........................................................................................................62
Hong Kong: Seeking sustainability.................................................................................................65
India: The rough patch lengthens ..................................................................................................69
Indonesia: Capital inflow concerns ................................................................................................73
Korea: Shifting focus to the core ....................................................................................................76
Malaysia: The election countdown begins...................................................................................79
Philippines: Focus on fiscal performance .....................................................................................82
Singapore: Pressures of life in the fast lane..................................................................................85
Sri Lanka: Humming along nicely...................................................................................................88
Taiwan: Inflexion point .....................................................................................................................91
Thailand: Up in the air .......................................................................................................................94
Vietnam: Remaining focused ..........................................................................................................97
Emerging EMEA
EM Europe’s Currency Pegs: Latvia, Lithuania, Bulgaria –
Differentiation as headwinds increase..................................................................................... 100
Croatia: First achievement on a long way to success............................................................. 105
Czech Republic: Growth, inflation, and policies all steady..................................................... 109
Egypt: Money now, worry later.................................................................................................... 113
Ghana: Inflation outlook remains uncertain ............................................................................. 117
Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC): Spending rises suggest upside risks.............................. 120
Hungary: The leap of faith – so far so good.............................................................................. 124
Israel: Engineering a smooth landing ......................................................................................... 128
Kenya: Inflation bugbear returns ................................................................................................. 132
Lebanon: In the eye of Syria’s storm........................................................................................... 134
Nigeria: New chapter brings new hope...................................................................................... 138
North Africa: Mild recovery versus solid growth ..................................................................... 141
Poland: Improving fiscal position with inflation peaking....................................................... 145
Romania: Steady progress, medium-term risks....................................................................... 149
Russia: Still punching below its weight...................................................................................... 153
Serbia: More positive momentum............................................................................................... 157
South Africa: The inflation versus growth debate ................................................................... 160
Turkey: AKP wins again – Macro challenges remain .............................................................. 164
Ukraine: Sliding off track but not off the table ......................................................................... 168
Zambia: Post-election uncertainty poses risk to ZMK in Q3................................................. 171
Latin America
Argentina: On autopilot ................................................................................................................. 173
Brazil: Lifeline for gradualism ....................................................................................................... 178
Chile: Steady state.......................................................................................................................... 182
Colombia: Dove temptation.......................................................................................................... 185
El Salvador: Still work to do........................................................................................................... 189
Mexico: Chasing the horizon ........................................................................................................ 192
Peru: Political shock with economic costs ................................................................................ 197
Uruguay: Let’s give them more credit ........................................................................................ 201
Venezuela: An expensive and long campaign .......................................................................... 203
Overview of Key Economic and Financial Indicators .............................................................. 208
Global Forecasts .............................................................................................................................. 209
World at a Glance........................................................................................................................... 211
Official Interest Rates ..................................................................................................................... 213
FX Forecasts and Forwards .......................................................................................................... 215
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